This discussion reminds me of a TV program that originated in Britain and was shown on U.S. Public Broadcasting System.
The showed, called ‘Connections’ originated in Britain and was hosted by James Burke. The premise was that technology moves forward as a result of seemingly unrelated advancements in disparate areas. One result, is that no single person or entity is responsible for large advancements. The effect of one advancement cannot be predicted.
Very insightful….and fascinating to think about in context of the solid state battery discussion and our world in general.
A better description from Wikipedia _
”
Connections explores an "Alternative View of Change" (the subtitle of the series) that rejects the conventional linear and
teleological view of historical progress. Burke contends that one cannot consider the development of any particular piece of the modern world in isolation. Rather, the entire
gestalt of the modern world is the result of a web of interconnected events, each one consisting of a person or group acting for reasons of their own motivations (e.g., profit, curiosity, religion) with no concept of the final, modern result to which the actions of either them or their contemporaries would lead. The interplay of the results of these isolated events is what drives history and innovation, and is also the main focus of the series and its sequels.
[3]
To demonstrate this view, Burke begins each episode with a particular event or innovation in the past (usually
ancient or
medieval times) and traces the path from that event through a series of seemingly unrelated connections to a fundamental and essential aspect of the modern world. For example, the episode "The Long Chain" traces the invention of plastics from the development of the
fluyt, a type of Dutch
cargo ship.
Burke also explores three
corollaries to his initial thesis. The first is that, if history is driven by individuals who act only on what they know at the time, and not because of any idea as to where their actions will eventually lead, then predicting the future course of technological progress is merely conjecture. Therefore, if we are astonished by the connections Burke is able to weave among past events, then we will be equally surprised to what the events of today eventually will lead, especially events of which we were not even aware at the time.
[3]
The second and third corollaries are explored most in the introductory and concluding episodes, and they represent the downside of an interconnected history. If history progresses because of the synergistic interaction of past events and innovations, then as history does progress, the number of these events and innovations increases. This increase in possible connections causes the process of innovation to not only continue, but also to accelerate. Burke poses the question of what happens when this rate of innovation, or more importantly "change" itself,
becomes too much for the average person to handle, and what this means for individual power, liberty, and privacy.
Lastly, if the entire modern world is built from these interconnected innovations, all increasingly maintained and improved by specialists who required years of training to gain their expertise, what chance does the average citizen without this extensive training have in making an informed decision on practical technological issues, such as the building of
nuclear power plants or the funding of controversial projects such as
stem cell research? Furthermore, if the modern world is increasingly interconnected, what happens when one of those nodes collapses? Does the entire system follow suit?
) understood how to design the “right” product and successfully market it, and from there was able to move rapidly toward economies of scale.
