🔋 Semi-Solid-State batteries revolution!

The elephant in the room is the limited known deposits of lithium and the horrendous cost, environmental, economic and human, to mine it. Folk refer to the long term availability of oil and gas, but both far outlast supplies of lithium.
lol, stop listening to right wing fearmongers
 
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I really think people need to separate battery tech for bicycles from EVs.

The majority of EV manufacturers use pouch or prismatic cells nowadays, mainly because cylindrical cells waste lots of space between them.

E-bikes are always going to be using whatever crumbs fall from the table, even if solid state batteries became a mainstream ‘thing’, anybody who thinks it’s going to drive down the cost of e-bikes is thinking wishfully.

Bike manufacturers will charge what they think it’s worth, if solid state batteries become cheaper it’s either more profit or it’s not going to move the price dial very far.

And let’s cut with the ‘left vs right’ crap please, either let’s have an adult fact based conversation or lock the thread.
 
The elephant in the room is the limited known deposits of lithium and the horrendous cost, environmental, economic and human, to mine it. Folk refer to the long term availability of oil and gas, but both far outlast supplies of lithium.
Lithium isn't that rare, and it's an elemental metal. It's not consumed when used in batteries. It's also not exceptionally bad to mine. I've never heard of it having a high human cost like, for example, cobalt.

When oil and gas are gone, they're gone. We have lithium forever.
 
The requirements for an acceptable EMTB battery are more difficult than for a car because a car has sophisticated liquid-based battery thermal management systems that maintain the cells at optimal temperatures for fast charging and longevity. A car can heat or cool the battery at will. The original Nissan Leaf did not have a liquid based thermal management system and thus EVs developed an early reputation of not lasting very long, much like an EMTB battery that gets heavy use. Temperature and battery life is strongly linked but weight considerations have prevented EMTBs from having sophisticated thermal management systems that are effective.
At current power levels of eMTBs (including Avinox) there's no need for active thermal management as it would unnecessary complicate things (not good for reliability), add weight and cost. It's not the battery that would get hot but rather the drive unit. For well established brands, most battery failures(or significant capacity fade) before 200 cycles happen because of external problems (shorts, water damage because of poor case design, BMS faults, or poor maintenance from the user). If newer and better cells are to be used (Dji already did that, not necessarily solid state), there's even less incentive for active temperature control.

Even with cell tech available, most bike manufacturers could provide slightly better batteries than they do! So I don't think we'll see SSBs in our ebikes very soon. But I think/hope that in 2026, we'll see eMTB batteries using cells with 300-320Wh/KG most likely in 21700 format.
 
lol, stop listening to right wing fearmongers
There is no such thing as left or right wing. They are meaningless labels especially when you consider what is referred to as extreme right and extreme left are essentially the same in practise. The only worthwhile viewpoints are those based on valid analysis of the facts. It is fine to have different opinions so please don't revert to the pathetic " far right" mantra.
 
I hear you. I think most productive conversations happen when we focus on evidence and outcomes rather than categories. Different viewpoints can still meet in the middle when the goal is understanding.
 
Lithium isn't that rare, and it's an elemental metal. It's not consumed when used in batteries. It's also not exceptionally bad to mine. I've never heard of it having a high human cost like, for example, cobalt.

When oil and gas are gone, they're gone. We have lithium forever.

We can argue about the wisdom of burning fossil fuels separately, but there is no shortage of fossil fuels to extract, like at all. We have generations of oil. The new discoveries are vast and the extraction methods continue to get better all while vehicles become more efficient.
That's one reason that when adjusted for inflation oil is cheaper than it was half a century ago.
 
There is no such thing as left or right wing. They are meaningless labels especially when you consider what is referred to as extreme right and extreme left are essentially the same in practise. The only worthwhile viewpoints are those based on valid analysis of the facts. It is fine to have different opinions so please don't revert to the pathetic " far right" mantra.
then why are you STILL using the same old, debunked talking points used to discredit Tesla 10 years ago?
 
We all have to be aware that it is very difficult to get information that is not pushed either by large corporates or Govt. Very little of the main stream media is truly independent. So we all have to make a judgement, based on credibility and independence of the source, what we believe and what we do not. Fortunately there are plenty of alternative sources of information other than main stream media now. Hence we can come to different conclusions.
 
We all have to be aware that it is very difficult to get information that is not pushed either by large corporates or Govt. Very little of the main stream media is truly independent. So we all have to make a judgement, based on credibility and independence of the source, what we believe and what we do not. Fortunately there are plenty of alternative sources of information other than main stream media now. Hence we can come to different conclusions.
take the ai of your choice, and ask it how much lithium there is JUST in all the sea water on earth (0,17g/l). OR think back to chemistry class, and what the position in the elements table meant in how abundant that element is...
 
take the ai of your choice, and ask it how much lithium there is JUST in all the sea water on earth (0,17g/l)
I've read a couple of years back about abundance of Li in salt water compared to crust but 0.17g/l seemed excessive to be true so...I cheked, more like 0,00017g/l.
1767991097399.png

In any case, I always verify AI output on such prompts...seems this time got it fine.
 
We all have to be aware that it is very difficult to get information that is not pushed either by large corporates or Govt. Very little of the main stream media is truly independent. So we all have to make a judgement, based on credibility and independence of the source, what we believe and what we do not. Fortunately there are plenty of alternative sources of information other than main stream media now. Hence we can come to different conclusions.
Yes, that's also a hard truth perceived by me. Everything must be a "deep dive" these days, even to find the real specs of a product. And even in "deep dive" mode, you struggle to get the truth out...unless you have plenty of prior knowledge/experience in that particular field and you can then extract the truth( or expose the lie) for yourself :)
 
The problem with many ‘alternative’ information sources these days is that those taking them as gospel often fall foul of the Dunning-Kruger effect.

AI does not suddenly bestow the searcher with expertise on a given topic, nor does it stop people throwing information out there they happen to agree with as fact, unfortunately.
 
The problem with many ‘alternative’ information sources these days is that those taking them as gospel often fall foul of the Dunning-Kruger effect.

AI does not suddenly bestow the searcher with expertise on a given topic, nor does it stop people throwing information out there they happen to agree with as fact, unfortunately.
Indeed, and why the less you know about a subject the easier it is to come to a conclusion.

The reason is because ignorance is a flowing trail and knowledge is a black diamond run.
When you know very little about a subject, your mind is working with few pieces, so it snaps them together quickly and calls it a picture with confidence rising before competence. Just as in sports where beginners feel unusually confident because they don’t yet see the complexity of the terrain. They mistake the absence of doubt for clarity.

Knowledge introduces empathy. As understanding grows, you start seeing why reasonable people arrive at different conclusions. That makes it harder to dismiss alternatives and easier to hold multiple truths at once. Wisdom often sounds less certain than ignorance. Not because it knows less, but because it knows how much there is to account for. So if something feels instantly obvious, that’s not a sign it’s wrong. It’s a sign you’ve reached the first plateau, not the summit.
 
We can argue about the wisdom of burning fossil fuels separately, but there is no shortage of fossil fuels to extract, like at all. We have generations of oil. The new discoveries are vast and the extraction methods continue to get better all while vehicles become more efficient.
That's one reason that when adjusted for inflation oil is cheaper than it was half a century ago.
I don't recall saying we were on the brink of running out. But it is obviously finite. "Generations" is not actually that much time, even on the timescale of human history, much less the timescale of the planet.
 
Of course in the timeline of the planet, another 200 years of inexpensive fossil fuels is just a blip. But in terms of legislating EV autos for every application at any cost, before the technology is approximately equivalent in useability, generations is a very LONG time.
 
Just watched a video of the CEO of Donut Lab at CES 2026. Interviewer asked him about cooling the battery. He said the battery only needed air cooling and went over to the Verge motorbike and showed all the air vents, and said when the bike is moving, the air cooling would be sufficient, and as it draws no power when stopped. No cooling required when not moving.

I have just one question you numpty. The bike supposedly charges at 200kW. How the f**k are you going to keep it cool then ? Is he proposing you ride it while charging ? I'm going to need a long charge cable, genius.

The biggest limitation to high speed charging in motorbikes, is the electric vehicle must have liquid cooling to perform high speed charging. Nissan learnt this the hard way.

1768001709877.png
 
Of course in the timeline of the planet, another 200 years of inexpensive fossil fuels is just a blip. But in terms of legislating EV autos for every application at any cost, before the technology is approximately equivalent in useability, generations is a very LONG time.

I’m not sure which planet you’re on that has 200 years of fossil fuels left, but at current consumption levels it ain’t this one…

You’re also not allowing for population growth.

Most realistic and sensible estimates put it at 50-100 years max, and it won’t be cheap in 50 years time either unless something changes. Given how crucial oil is for all sorts of things for western life, it would probably be a good idea not to be burning it any more than we have to.

I work in a very carbon intensive industry, namely military aviation, batteries and motors will not be replacing what we do any time soon, but in personal transport why not.

It’s perhaps a particularly US perspective, but EVs really are perfectly viable personal transport in lots of other countries, as evidenced by my own use of them for the last 12 years and a quarter of a million miles driven…

Not sure why a thread about solid state batteries in e-bikes has become so dominated by anti EV sentiment though, a genuine puzzler.
 
Not sure why a thread about solid state batteries in e-bikes has become so dominated by anti EV sentiment though, a genuine puzzler.
Australia was late to the EV transition and I started the EV thread on my skiing forum about 5 years ago, when I bought my electric motorbike. The amount of anti-EV sentiment out there is mind boggling. But it didn't stop me converting my entire household to EVs and renewable energy. It was purely a financial decision. As vehicles and equipment needed updating. I replaced with an electric version. And if you buy the EV based on the best EV for your needs. Getting an EV will be a very positive experience.

The biggest problem is it has been politicalized. So it really doesn't matter whether they are a necessary transition or not. The sentiment centres around whether you lean left or right. Which is a shame.
 
You forgot cost, which is the metric that matters most. Here's why:
You are right in your considerations, but I didn't forget cost. I mentioned it in my post. Read it again, please.

However, I was referring to the technical issues of producing more efficient batteries. But once you have solved the technical issue, cost depends from volatile factors like how many batteries are produced and where.
 
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lol, stop listening to right wing fearmongers

The fake anti-EV narratives cross the lines of political parties. At the heart of these anti-EV narratives is economic threat (to legacy revenue streams) and that is not party-specific.

As you know, lithium is not only very common, even in the USA, it's also an element and as such endlessly recyclable. Unlike oil, it doesn't get consumed when used in a battery.
 
At current power levels of eMTBs (including Avinox) there's no need for active thermal management as it would unnecessary complicate things (not good for reliability), add weight and cost. It's not the battery that would get hot but rather the drive unit. For well established brands, most battery failures(or significant capacity fade) before 200 cycles happen because of external problems (shorts, water damage because of poor case design, BMS faults, or poor maintenance from the user). If newer and better cells are to be used (Dji already did that, not necessarily solid state), there's even less incentive for active temperature control.

I'm not saying it makes sense to have active battery thermal management on EMTB's, it doesn't for weight/cost/complexity reasons. We are only talking about less than 1 kWh of battery compared to 100 times that in an EV. EV's have a real reason to ensure their batteries have a very long life. I am saying EMTB batteries life would become nearly indefinite with minimal degradation with thermal management. And that cells that had stricter thermal requirements could be used. Currently EMTB batteries are simply recycled at end of life which is the model that makes sense for typical EMTB use cases. Keep it simple.

In other words, the battery requirements for an EMTB and a car are somewhat different because they experience different thermal environments and usage patterns.
 
As you know, lithium is not only very common, even in the USA, it's also an element and as such endlessly recyclable. Unlike oil, it doesn't get consumed when used in a battery.
Didn't know that oil gets consumed in batteries, just shows that every day is a learning day. :)
 
Even with cell tech available, most bike manufacturers could provide slightly better batteries than they do! So I don't think we'll see SSBs in our ebikes very soon. But I think/hope that in 2026, we'll see eMTB batteries using cells with 300-320Wh/KG most likely in 21700 format.
I would agree that I believe this is highly likely, everyone is focused on the next big jump while ignoring the small jumps in progression that keep adding up over the years. Right now Avinox for example is using a cell that's been out for over 3 1/2 years and is 284wh/Kg & 786wh/L . Already we have a 21700 out that's 6.5ah hitting 312wh/Kg, and Molicel's M65A (322wh/Kg & 943wh/L) has a Q1 expected time frame. The ladder would see the Avinox move to a quoted 690wh & 920wh offering. A 15% jump in capacity I'm sure no one will be unhappy with, especially when it's only a 30g / 40g increase in weight. Cycle life is claimed at over 1k cycles before <80% remaining. And charging could see a nice jump to decrease times even further.
 
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