On another mtb forum, there was a run of posts about riders being targeted in the trail centre car park. The tactics varied from faked incidents to get them to stop at which point they were basically subjected to armed robbery. At the other extreme, they were followed home and then burgled that night. There was a whole load of tactics in-between.
Of the two, from the thief's viewpoint, the former is the more certain, because who knows how far away the victim's home is from the trail centre? But it carries greater risk and also a greater penalty in the unlikely event they were caught.
About three years ago, I chatted to a guy in my local TC and he had a very high end mtb indeed, (Santa Cruz IIRC), but at first glance it looked like crap. The analogue mtb cost him in excess of £10k! But he told me that everywhere he went he was getting envious looks from unsavoury characters. Such was his fear of it getting stolen that he had patiently removed every single logo and bit of bling that was on the bike/wheels/suspension/bars....... In addition, he had rubbed down the carbon fibre frame finish with wire wool to make it look matt and dingy. Anything that could not be masked in that way, such as the manufacturer's brand name under lacquer, he covered with dull black electrical tape. Such was the disguise that you had to know what you were looking for and to look carefully and with focus. A cursory glance would pass the bike by. But what a shame! I wonder how much value he removed from the bike come the time for onward sale?