100% correct. But it does not look good. Shimano has remained quiet about this. They had so many problems and come backs with the EP801 they have quit the Ebike motors market. Shimano also had the huge recall on many of the Canyon batteries Co made with Trendpower and full of the Shimano electronics...
The "quit the market" bit is a stretch - Shimano hasn't announced any such thing - but the direction of travel backs up almost everything else you said,
@Winford.
On the Eurobike pull-out: that part's solid. Shimano has confirmed it will no longer exhibit at Eurobike, marking a significant blow as the show prepares for major restructuring.
And the market-share numbers are worse than "quiet" - they're a genuine slide: In their 2023 group test, eight bikes featured Shimano motors, but by 2025 that number had dropped to just four, just 13.3% of the 30 bikes tested.
No confirmed EP801 successor either - plenty of rumour about an "EPX", nothing official. On the battery recall - that's not exaggeration, that's exactly what happened.
Owners of Canyon's Spectral:ON CF and CFR, and Torque:ON CF electric mountain bikes were told to stop using their bikes and batteries immediately, due to battery damage posing a potential fire risk.
The mechanism was damage to the battery casing that could cause moisture ingress, short-circuiting the battery and bypassing its fail-safe protection mechanisms.
Canyon's official target was replacement batteries by February, though it wasn't clear if that meant design sign-off or units actually reaching owners - which lines up with your 7-10 month real-world wait rather than contradicting it.
None of that proves the 500W de-rating theory, but it does mean you're not being paranoid about the brand's reliability track record - the pattern's real, documented, and ongoing.