But we also have to factor profit vs. manufacturing cost, warehousing, additional warranty support on aftermarket motors, bogged installations, etc.
I’m thinking even at $1k-1.5k, there’s not much financial incentive.
They are moving so fast, whatever iteration they make will only have a real 2-3 year shelf life. If it were like a moto company (Same essential Honda, Yamaha, Suzuki, etc motor for 15-20 years), sure.
But not in this new world of entire architecture being redesigned so rapidly.
This
all depends on how well optimized their business is.
Profit vs. manufacturing cost exists equally for OEM and aftermarket motors so, in my perspective, this is actually advantageous to the aftermarket motor sales, because they would fetch a much higher retail price rather than the heavily discounted (well below wholesale) price of the OEM sales.
Warehousing costs depend on their production scheduling ability. OEM sales are booked well in advance, unlike most retail sales, but if Avinox offered motor upgrades as a pre-sale deposit, similar to how Crestline is doing their bikes, then they could add additional motors to each of their production runs as needed, to meet the retail demand, along with their OEM demand.
Warranty support exists, at least in a material sense, for OEM motors and aftermarket motors equally. If their motors are failing at a 5% rate annually (just making up a number here), it is advantageous for them to have sold that motor for $1000 to a retail customer, vs. $300 to an OEM customer. If you are referring to the soft costs of handling warranty calls, which they push out to the bike brands for OEM motors, that is true, they would need to bear those additional costs internally. Having said that, if they optimize their customer service systems to handle known common problems, then AI can help steer customers to "known good" solutions and, if that is insufficient for edge cases, I find it hard to believe that Asian call center wages are so great as to deep six their profit margin. I don't know how DJI handles their other customer service but, in an optimized business, Avinox should be able to rely on whatever call center resources are handling the DJI drone and camera calls, once they are properly cross trained.
Bogged installations are the only issue I see to aftermarket sales, and even that is marginal. Assuming the motors are sent out with the proper battery and display plug interface then, really, Avinox's job is done. Common setup issues can be handled via AI or inexpensive call center based customer service. If you are worried about idiots with Bosch bikes, buying Avinox motors, and then taking up hours of customer service time trying to troubleshoot their impossible fitment, you can set up your system such that the buyer needs to select their bike, model, and then enter a valid serial number before they can actually buy a motor. That should keep the riffraff out.
Lastly, regarding the 2-3yr shelf life of e-bike motors vs. 15-20 year lifespan of ICE motos, I struggle to see how that is disadvantageous to aftermarket sales. If anything, the short shelf life guarantees ongoing sales, which is often termed "the razor and blades model". Very little capital is willing to wait for a 15-20 year horizon, but a 2-3 year time scale could be generating ongoing revenue in a very acceptable and consistent timeframe. If I've misunderstood you, and you're talking about e-bike lifespan as a whole, then I can see your point a bit more, as who wants to buy a new expensive motor for a bike that is obsolete?
Having said that, bike geometry has been pretty static for well over 5 years, with no signs of changing significantly, so the main thing that is becoming obsolete in e-bikes is the motor/battery/display system,
not the rest of the bike. If the motor/batter/and display could be updated, most of our bikes would be good to go. Personally speaking, I'd very much consider purchasing a used, reasonably priced, Shimano motored e-bike, if Intradrive offers their MGU for sale aftermarket. A kaput Shimano bike that still has modern geometry for 2 or 3k USD, and then another 2 or 3k USD on the new MGU, would give you an "out the door" price that is well below all but the most budget current options, while giving you the cutting edge in the tech that is actually advancing rapidly. You mentioned "entire architecture being redesigned so rapidly". I am putting aside the issue of a universal motor mount standard as that seems unachievable with different brands competing, but it seems to me most of the "architecture" being "redesigned" is the Motor/Battery/Display system. All of those are
already cross compatible between the new M2 and the original M1. As evidence, I offer the fact that Avinox has stated the parts are compatible in interviews, and, depending on bike, many M2/S equipped bikes come with the older batteries and displays. There is no barrier to that compatibility, other than them actually offering the new components for sale.
there are other considerations like warranty & compatibility issues & many others.
Again, warranty exists equally for both OEM and aftermarket customers. Compatibility can be addressed by my above suggestion to require aftermarket customers to enter their bike brand-name, model, and serial number, before they are permitted to purchase an aftermarket motor.
Not sure what "many others" is, but please feel free to elaborate. These guys are already selling motors for bikes that could (debatably) be in violation of US Federal e-bike rules. Not sure of your location and local regs, but it seems positively wacky to think Avinox's business case is safe and happy as long as they are selling huge quantities of motors that are (debatably) violating Federal e-bike rules, to people who might use them in a way that could result in injury and subsequent lawsuit, but Avinox
really needs to worry if a guy who bought a motor on Aliexpress has trouble getting it to communicate with his existing battery. My God, he might be really pissed off about that, and it might take
many minutes of customer service time to resolve!
My apologies if I seem a little salty on these topics, but I really have a problem with planned obsolescence, and I've seen it going on in the bike industry for a long time, and only accelerating with the advent of e-bikes. I try to give companies, particularly ones producing fancy high tech stuff, the benefit of the doubt. But maybe I am expecting too much from DJI. If this whole warranty/customer service/support issue is too scary for Avinox to commit to aftermarket sales, then I would be happy to start handling that part of their business for them. If they will give me Net-90 terms, I'll happily take an initial run of 100 motors from their next production run to sell to you guys, and will happily scale my e-bike empire from there.