Motor upgrade to M2s

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Probably, I wouldn't want one now anyway. The M1 is still more than enough motor for everyone really, Providing you accept the negatives it has.

If I can swap one in to prolong the life, or keep it relevant more so, of my current Forbidden for an extra couple of years until an Avinox MGU appears then that would do me.

100% they are working on an internal gearbox type motor as we speak, Realistically it's the only way that bikes/motors/drivetrain are truly going to evolve now and it's only a matter of time really.
I'm with you. I don't have a strong urge to upgrade considering the costs vs benefits but if the opportunity presents itself I would.

I'd call the advancements from the M1 to M2 minimal at best. Outside of bringing the motor weight way down (Avinox seems to not be overly concerned with the weight of things, only power which usually means more weight) and battery weight way down (they're at the mercy of outside advancements for that), you HAVE to think something like the MGU is next. For that I would certainly wait for MGUv2. People forget internal gearboxes have been in development for 30+ years and unless Avinox figures out something very different it's going to take time to develop.
 
500 x 10,000 = 5,000,000
Im pretty sure that was a typo on the $5k, lol
But we also have to factor profit vs. manufacturing cost, warehousing, additional warranty support on aftermarket motors, bogged installations, etc.
$500. Is not $500 profit.
I’m thinking even at $1k-1.5k, there’s not much financial incentive.
They are moving so fast, whatever iteration they make will only have a real 2-3 year shelf life. If it were like a moto company (Same essential Honda, Yamaha, Suzuki, etc motor for 15-20 years), sure.
But not in this new world of entire architecture being redesigned so rapidly.
 
Dealer is quoting late may.
He'll check with Avinox on Tuesday if he can get more sooner but his stockpile of them have all gone this weekend, he's shifted 9 of them in the space of s couple days, wild but I guess everyone wants one at the moment
 
The "M1" motor is way over powered for most situations. Those higher power modes drain the battery too much. It is actually laughable how easy it is. I ride mine in Eco most of the time to conserve battery.

Yes the new motor is "better", it has to be, but if you want the latest tech all the time, you are going to be buying a new bike every few years. Probably best concentrate on riding and having fun.
 
What would people pay for an M2S upgrade kit? It’s not going to be $450; it’d likely be well over $1000. Seems to me there’d be very, very few people that would upgrade instead of just buying a new bike.

Even if we assume Avinox makes $500 per kit; and they sell 10,000 kits a year, the upgrade program would bring only $5000 a year in revenue. Not even close to worth creating the program.
I think you're missing a few zeros...more like $ 5,000,000, assuming your math, but there are other considerations like warranty & compatibility issues & many others.
 
An M1 to M2 upgrade simply relies on manufacturing volume ramp up, supply and demand, for a product they just launched a few weeks ago. . Right now, Avinox is probabl struggling to supply all the new OEM bikes shipping with the M2. Once they ramp up volume production enough to produce more units then OEM demand, the upgrade pathways will emerge.
 
But we also have to factor profit vs. manufacturing cost, warehousing, additional warranty support on aftermarket motors, bogged installations, etc.
I’m thinking even at $1k-1.5k, there’s not much financial incentive.
They are moving so fast, whatever iteration they make will only have a real 2-3 year shelf life. If it were like a moto company (Same essential Honda, Yamaha, Suzuki, etc motor for 15-20 years), sure.
But not in this new world of entire architecture being redesigned so rapidly.
This all depends on how well optimized their business is.

Profit vs. manufacturing cost exists equally for OEM and aftermarket motors so, in my perspective, this is actually advantageous to the aftermarket motor sales, because they would fetch a much higher retail price rather than the heavily discounted (well below wholesale) price of the OEM sales.

Warehousing costs depend on their production scheduling ability. OEM sales are booked well in advance, unlike most retail sales, but if Avinox offered motor upgrades as a pre-sale deposit, similar to how Crestline is doing their bikes, then they could add additional motors to each of their production runs as needed, to meet the retail demand, along with their OEM demand.

Warranty support exists, at least in a material sense, for OEM motors and aftermarket motors equally. If their motors are failing at a 5% rate annually (just making up a number here), it is advantageous for them to have sold that motor for $1000 to a retail customer, vs. $300 to an OEM customer. If you are referring to the soft costs of handling warranty calls, which they push out to the bike brands for OEM motors, that is true, they would need to bear those additional costs internally. Having said that, if they optimize their customer service systems to handle known common problems, then AI can help steer customers to "known good" solutions and, if that is insufficient for edge cases, I find it hard to believe that Asian call center wages are so great as to deep six their profit margin. I don't know how DJI handles their other customer service but, in an optimized business, Avinox should be able to rely on whatever call center resources are handling the DJI drone and camera calls, once they are properly cross trained.

Bogged installations are the only issue I see to aftermarket sales, and even that is marginal. Assuming the motors are sent out with the proper battery and display plug interface then, really, Avinox's job is done. Common setup issues can be handled via AI or inexpensive call center based customer service. If you are worried about idiots with Bosch bikes, buying Avinox motors, and then taking up hours of customer service time trying to troubleshoot their impossible fitment, you can set up your system such that the buyer needs to select their bike, model, and then enter a valid serial number before they can actually buy a motor. That should keep the riffraff out.

Lastly, regarding the 2-3yr shelf life of e-bike motors vs. 15-20 year lifespan of ICE motos, I struggle to see how that is disadvantageous to aftermarket sales. If anything, the short shelf life guarantees ongoing sales, which is often termed "the razor and blades model". Very little capital is willing to wait for a 15-20 year horizon, but a 2-3 year time scale could be generating ongoing revenue in a very acceptable and consistent timeframe. If I've misunderstood you, and you're talking about e-bike lifespan as a whole, then I can see your point a bit more, as who wants to buy a new expensive motor for a bike that is obsolete?

Having said that, bike geometry has been pretty static for well over 5 years, with no signs of changing significantly, so the main thing that is becoming obsolete in e-bikes is the motor/battery/display system, not the rest of the bike. If the motor/batter/and display could be updated, most of our bikes would be good to go. Personally speaking, I'd very much consider purchasing a used, reasonably priced, Shimano motored e-bike, if Intradrive offers their MGU for sale aftermarket. A kaput Shimano bike that still has modern geometry for 2 or 3k USD, and then another 2 or 3k USD on the new MGU, would give you an "out the door" price that is well below all but the most budget current options, while giving you the cutting edge in the tech that is actually advancing rapidly. You mentioned "entire architecture being redesigned so rapidly". I am putting aside the issue of a universal motor mount standard as that seems unachievable with different brands competing, but it seems to me most of the "architecture" being "redesigned" is the Motor/Battery/Display system. All of those are already cross compatible between the new M2 and the original M1. As evidence, I offer the fact that Avinox has stated the parts are compatible in interviews, and, depending on bike, many M2/S equipped bikes come with the older batteries and displays. There is no barrier to that compatibility, other than them actually offering the new components for sale.
there are other considerations like warranty & compatibility issues & many others.
Again, warranty exists equally for both OEM and aftermarket customers. Compatibility can be addressed by my above suggestion to require aftermarket customers to enter their bike brand-name, model, and serial number, before they are permitted to purchase an aftermarket motor.

Not sure what "many others" is, but please feel free to elaborate. These guys are already selling motors for bikes that could (debatably) be in violation of US Federal e-bike rules. Not sure of your location and local regs, but it seems positively wacky to think Avinox's business case is safe and happy as long as they are selling huge quantities of motors that are (debatably) violating Federal e-bike rules, to people who might use them in a way that could result in injury and subsequent lawsuit, but Avinox really needs to worry if a guy who bought a motor on Aliexpress has trouble getting it to communicate with his existing battery. My God, he might be really pissed off about that, and it might take many minutes of customer service time to resolve!

My apologies if I seem a little salty on these topics, but I really have a problem with planned obsolescence, and I've seen it going on in the bike industry for a long time, and only accelerating with the advent of e-bikes. I try to give companies, particularly ones producing fancy high tech stuff, the benefit of the doubt. But maybe I am expecting too much from DJI. If this whole warranty/customer service/support issue is too scary for Avinox to commit to aftermarket sales, then I would be happy to start handling that part of their business for them. If they will give me Net-90 terms, I'll happily take an initial run of 100 motors from their next production run to sell to you guys, and will happily scale my e-bike empire from there.
 
What charger are you talking about? My PL carbon came with a 12a 508w charger, I believe that is the “Fast Charger”, were you expecting something faster?
I'm swinging the other way, mine came with the fast charger too. I do a daily ~25km ride, the bike gets plugged in and I don't come back to it until the next day. It's charged in probably 30-40 minutes... A 4A charger would be perfect for me but is it worth spending $400 for a slow charger to marginally extend battery life over X amount of time on a bike that I will have for 2 yrs max and not get that $400 back on resale.
 
I'm swinging the other way, mine came with the fast charger too. I do a daily ~25km ride, the bike gets plugged in and I don't come back to it until the next day. It's charged in probably 30-40 minutes... A 4A charger would be perfect for me but is it worth spending $400 for a slow charger to marginally extend battery life over X amount of time on a bike that I will have for 2 yrs max and not get that $400 back on resale.
That sounds like an easily answerable math(s) problem to me. Geeks...what is the marginal cost based on the above parameters?
 
Avinox have stated they have discussed an upgrade kit but would need to discuss it with the OEMs

 
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