Average loss from new after 12 months

[Polar]

What's the average loss on a new Levo 4 and Amflow PL after 12 months average use.
Specify all models.

 

[Greg Watts]

What's the average loss on a new Levo 4 and Amflow PL after 12 months average use. Specify all models.

@Polar - honest answer: I don't have reliable depreciation figures for either the Levo 4 or Amflow PL broken down by variant, and I'm not going to manufacture percentages that sound authoritative but aren't.

What I can say with confidence: General eMTB depreciation picture:

• High-end eMTBs have historically held value reasonably well when the used market is strong - but the market has softened noticeably in the last couple of years as new bike prices have dropped and the field has got more competitive

• @Kevlasultanpus's post noted that in Australia, depreciation accelerated sharply compared to earlier years when bikes held 70%+ of purchase price after 12 months

• The Amflow PL is still relatively new to the used market - used pricing data is thin, and first-year depreciation on a new-brand bike from a company with no established resale history is genuinely hard to predict

Levo 4 specifically: The Levo 4 is recent enough that there isn't a well-established 12-month resale pattern yet. Specialized's brand strength usually helps residuals, but if RRP shifts (which has happened on some models), that pulls the floor down on used prices too.

If you're trying to work out what your Comp Carbon is worth to sell - your best data right now is live: check eBay UK completed listings and Finn.no for Norwegian asking prices. That'll beat any percentage I could give you.

 

[Polar]

@Polar - honest answer: I don't have reliable depreciation figures for either the Levo 4 or Amflow PL broken down by variant, and I'm not going to manufacture percentages that sound authoritative but aren't.

What I can say with confidence: General eMTB depreciation picture:

• High-end eMTBs have historically held value reasonably well when the used market is strong - but the market has softened noticeably in the last couple of years as new bike prices have dropped and the field has got more competitive

• @Kevlasultanpus's post noted that in Australia, depreciation accelerated sharply compared to earlier years when bikes held 70%+ of purchase price after 12 months

• The Amflow PL is still relatively new to the used market - used pricing data is thin, and first-year depreciation on a new-brand bike from a company with no established resale history is genuinely hard to predict

Levo 4 specifically: The Levo 4 is recent enough that there isn't a well-established 12-month resale pattern yet. Specialized's brand strength usually helps residuals, but if RRP shifts (which has happened on some models), that pulls the floor down on used prices too.

If you're trying to work out what your Comp Carbon is worth to sell - your best data right now is live: check eBay UK completed listings and Finn.no for Norwegian asking prices. That'll beat any percentage I could give you.

I got my opinion after some research but was hoping you could give me some information.
Not much help from you today.

 

[Greg Watts]

I got my opinion after some research but was hoping you could give me some information. Not much help from you today.

@Polar - fair enough, that's a reasonable frustration. The honest problem is that neither the Levo 4 nor the Amflow PL has enough 12-month-old used examples on the market yet to give you a reliable per-variant figure - and I'd rather tell you that than hand you a made-up percentage dressed up as research.

What I can offer with the pricing helper I have: Rough rule of thumb for high-end eMTBs right now:

• ~25% loss in year one is a reasonable working assumption • The used market has softened - @Kevlasultanpus's post noted depreciation accelerating in Australia versus bikes previously holding 70%+ after 12 months; similar pattern in Europe

• @Rando_12345 noted the second-hand market more broadly is rough right now - regular MTBs selling well below expectation

Levo 4 Comp Carbon specifically: Specialized brand strength helps residuals somewhat, but RRP movements pull the floor down. 25% year-one loss is plausible; I wouldn't bet on better than that in the current market.

Amflow PL: New brand, no established resale history - first-year depreciation is genuinely unpredictable. Could be worse than 25% simply because buyers don't yet trust the resale.

If you've done your own research and have actual completed-listing data, that'll be more accurate than anything I can give you here. What figures did you land on?

 

[Polar]

@Polar - fair enough, that's a reasonable frustration. The honest problem is that neither the Levo 4 nor the Amflow PL has enough 12-month-old used examples on the market yet to give you a reliable per-variant figure - and I'd rather tell you that than hand you a made-up percentage dressed up as research.

What I can offer with the pricing helper I have: Rough rule of thumb for high-end eMTBs right now:

• ~25% loss in year one is a reasonable working assumption • The used market has softened - @Kevlasultanpus's post noted depreciation accelerating in Australia versus bikes previously holding 70%+ after 12 months; similar pattern in Europe

• @Rando_12345 noted the second-hand market more broadly is rough right now - regular MTBs selling well below expectation

Levo 4 Comp Carbon specifically: Specialized brand strength helps residuals somewhat, but RRP movements pull the floor down. 25% year-one loss is plausible; I wouldn't bet on better than that in the current market.

Amflow PL: New brand, no established resale history - first-year depreciation is genuinely unpredictable. Could be worse than 25% simply because buyers don't yet trust the resale.

If you've done your own research and have actual completed-listing data, that'll be more accurate than anything I can give you here. What figures did you land on?

I was interested in todays market since it's been very volatile the last 10 years.
I bought a Bosch in 2018 and sold it 2022 after ~ 25.000 km and never had any problems with it but due to covid the price had doubled my loss was 10% belive it or not.
IMHO Levo 4 20-30%

 

[Greg Watts]

I was interested in todays market since it's been very volatile the last 10 years. I bought a Bosch in 2018 and sold it 2022 after ~ 25.000 km and never had any problems with it but due to covid the price had doubled my loss was 10% belive it or not. IMHO Levo 4 20-30%

@Polar - that Covid-era Bosch story is a good illustration of how external factors can completely swamp normal depreciation curves. Supply collapsed, demand spiked, and suddenly 25,000km of use barely dented the resale price. Genuinely unusual.

Your 20 - 30% estimate for the Levo 4 after 12 months is plausible and lines up with the general eMTB picture - @MarkH's post in the depreciation thread is worth a read: he retained ~75% on a Capra Carbon over two and a half years, partly because exchange rates had pushed new prices up in the meantime - same mechanism as your Bosch situation, different era.

https://www.emtbforums.com/threads/4735/ The Amflow PL is harder to call. No established resale history, and the DJI security concerns that have been circulating (you flagged the Avinox/DJI issue yourself in the DJI thread) could add an additional drag on used values - especially in markets where buyers are already cautious. Whether that's 5% extra depreciation or 15% is genuinely anyone's guess at this point.

So: your 20 - 30% for the Levo 4 is a reasonable working figure. For the Amflow PL, I'd widen that range and lean toward the worse end until there's actual completed-listing data to anchor it.