Where does Avinox go from here?

[slickrock]

MGU is a game changer, don't matter much what people could think without having testing it and really ride it on great bike for real rides. Weight is so perfectly balanced alongside all benefit that it is a game changer on any kind of bike even analog.

Still Pinion is not yet as refined as we want to be mass market but they are really close. Avinox could play that part but let's be honest, MGU is still niche and it would be a too bold move for them.

It's a niche because the Pinion MGU in its current form is unrefined, ungainly, noisy, heavy, large, expensive, and internally complex and competitors have yet to put pressure on in this product space. All its takes is for Avinox to build a better product, which based one what they've already brought to e-bike motor space, is something well in their wheelhouse to do.

 

[irie]

To be fair, what DJI have fundamentally done with their Avinox motor is turn up their motor wick and reduce battery bulge. In doing so DJI have successfully penetrated a previously hegemonic market sector.

 

[Coiler]

Solid state is the obvious step

 

[whitymon]

It's a niche because the Pinion MGU in its current form is unrefined, ungainly, noisy, heavy, large, expensive, and internally complex and competitors have yet to put pressure on in this product space. All its takes is for Avinox to build a better product, which based one what they've already brought to e-bike motor space, is something well in their wheelhouse to do.

This is a bit of nonsense but okay.

It is not more expensive, you are confused by not correctly taking into account everything, also do not think of Nicolai when you talk about MGU, they are ultra premium. Think twice about nearly no wear part and if so inexpensive, let's not start talking about the current price of a drivetrain today especially the wireless one right?

Second it is not more complex, motorbox exists for ages now, it just need refinement, it is better and better.

Thinking Avinox built something from air that is amazing is pure BS too, China is building tons of ebike motor for decades and they took a leap by refining device that was already excellent and where there was a market. Shimano & Bosch motor were already great product, they push it further by delivering something better I do agree. But they are far from nobel price people, come on, they refined a pretty already great base.

For MGU, it does not reach yet the same refinement threshold that Bosch gen4 had at the time, nor its market. R&D is too expensive for low result income, DJI is not a charity. They already have all eyes on their motor, far than enough now, better let Pinion trace the route and add the last meter when it is useful.

 

[slickrock]

This is a bit of nonsense but okay.

It is not more expensive, you are confused by not correctly taking into account everything, also do not think of Nicolai when you talk about MGU, they are ultra premium. Think twice about nearly no wear part and if so inexpensive, let's not start talking about the current price of a drivetrain today especially the wireless one right?

Second it is not more complex, motorbox exists for ages now, it just need refinement, it is better and better.

Thinking Avinox built something from air that is amazing is pure BS too, China is building tons of ebike motor for decades and they took a leap by refining device that was already excellent and where there was a market. Shimano & Bosch motor were already great product, they push it further by delivering something better I do agree. But they are far from nobel price people, come on, they refined a pretty already great base.

For MGU, it does not reach yet the same refinement threshold that Bosch gen4 had at the time, nor its market. R&D is too expensive for low result income, DJI is not a charity. They already have all eyes on their motor, far than enough now, better let Pinion trace the route and add the last meter when it is useful.

There's a lot to unpack here, but I'll take a shot:

1. DJI had the balls to go up against the big players and they succeeded, far beyond expectations. They are still small compared to Bosch in this space, but there's no question DJI is eating their lunch. DJI's entire system (motor, battery, controller, UI, software) hit Bosch, Brose, Shimano on an fronts. If they can do that, then they can do more, which is what the OP topic is about. It's in their wheelhouse to pull an MGU out their hat the same way they did for their motor.
2. While the OP is about Avinox, there is no reason why other big players are should not enter this space - Bosch itself being the most obvious. After all Bosch does not have a drivetrain to protect like Shimano and SRAM. Also, both SRAM and Shimano have patents for MGU solutions, but whether this is really signalling intent or merely a hedge is yet to be seen.
3. You are preaching to choir on the expense-dimension as an MGU would replace these current expensive automatic drivetrains, maintenance, etc.
4. Regarding gearbox complexity, I'm was trying to say two things:
   1. Gearboxes can be refined and made less complex by offering less gears (like what Intradrive is doing) or with better gearbox designs (which I didn't get into but can be seen with SRAM and Shimano patents).
   2. You can do away with gearboxes with complete alternative transmission designs, like pedal-by-wire and differential hybrid transmissions. It's this area I'm most interested in and is something I can see DJI jumping on, as both these alternatives are motor-centric rather than gear-centric.

 

[Highland Wheels]

I wouldn't be surprised if Amflow disappear, once DJI have enough OEMs buying their motor - which seems to be about now.

I don't imagine they want to be a bike manufacturer as such, and think they developed the AMFLOW to get the motor to market, generate interest and prove reliability. The profit, I would have thought, will be in the motor/battery supply...

Who's buying an AMFLOW if they can pick up a legacy brand with the Avinox motor, unless on price?

AMflow may disappear eventually but don't be shocked if DJI buys or takes a majority stake in one of the established brands like Mondraker or Commencal in the near future to keep their foot in the game so to speak with being able to release a bike/bikes with whatever the latest version of Avinox is before anyone else gets it.

 

[IATR]

AMflow may disappear eventually but don't be shocked if DJI buys or takes a majority stake in one of the established brands like Mondraker or Commencal in the near future to keep their foot in the game so to speak with being able to release a bike/bikes with whatever the latest version of Avinox is before anyone else gets it.

Maybe.

Equally, it might be more profitable for DJI just to offer any new motor to the highest bidder, with exclusivity for a given period, without any of the risk of being a cycle manufacturer and all that brings.

 

[Straker]

This is a bit of nonsense but okay.

It is not more expensive, you are confused by not correctly taking into account everything, also do not think of Nicolai when you talk about MGU, they are ultra premium. Think twice about nearly no wear part and if so inexpensive, let's not start talking about the current price of a drivetrain today especially the wireless one right?

Second it is not more complex, motorbox exists for ages now, it just need refinement, it is better and better.

Thinking Avinox built something from air that is amazing is pure BS too, China is building tons of ebike motor for decades and they took a leap by refining device that was already excellent and where there was a market. Shimano & Bosch motor were already great product, they push it further by delivering something better I do agree. But they are far from nobel price people, come on, they refined a pretty already great base.

For MGU, it does not reach yet the same refinement threshold that Bosch gen4 had at the time, nor its market. R&D is too expensive for low result income, DJI is not a charity. They already have all eyes on their motor, far than enough now, better let Pinion trace the route and add the last meter when it is useful.

Regarding Pinion, if they are fit enough or able to survive in a niche good for them, if DJI out design, manufacturer and compete them because the market truly needs MGU bikes then so be it, market forces will choose.

 

[whitymon]

@Straker who knows? I am no fan of any brand, still I would really like to ditch on all my bike chain, cassette, chainring even on analog. The weight gained at the wrong place (wheel) is amazing, no chain slap ...

There is a resistance at the moment and for good reason but we are not far from the inflection point for at least enduro/dh.

 

[tyrolrider]

While everyone is thinking about April 9th, I keep finding myself wondering where Avinox actually goes from here. There’s always room for small improvements like weight and durability, but it feels like we’re getting pretty close to the limit on power.

If the rumored M2S numbers are even close to accurate, isn’t the motor already at (or past) that imaginary line that’s been floating around? So what do they do in the next 12–18 months to keep the momentum going?

I’m sure battery tech will continue to improve, and maybe there’s more to be gained with sustained power or heat management, but I keep coming back to the motor itself. How much further can they realistically push it?

Could they go the gearbox route at some point? Maybe, but knowing DJI that doesn’t seem like the direction they’d take anytime soon. Either way, it’s been a pretty wild year already.

I mean seriously, what do they even do next year to top this?

Avinox 12-Gears Gearbox Motor is already in testing bei OEMs.

Goodbye Pinion (aquired by Rotax btw) with your loud, noisy and heavy Motor, bulky Remote, heavy Batteries. It was fun but it is to assume that the 12-Gear DJI Motor will beat your product at any angle. Unfortunately.

 

[simcapp]

E-bike motors have already reached their weight-to-power limit, as demonstrated by the slightly increased weight of the new M2 motor.
The next revolution will be new solid-state batteries with significantly higher weight-to-power ratios, but we'll have to wait a few more years for that.
Bafang already offers semi-solid-state batteries, but we're only at the beginning of true electric mobility.

 

[Polar]

E-bike motors have already reached their weight-to-power limit, as demonstrated by the slightly increased weight of the new M2 motor.
The next revolution will be new solid-state batteries with significantly higher weight-to-power ratios, but we'll have to wait a few more years for that.
Bafang already offers semi-solid-state batteries, but we're only at the beginning of true electric mobility.

Solid-state batteries won't happen in many years so in the meantime more power is what's happening.

 

[slickrock]

Avinox 12-Gears Gearbox Motor is already in testing bei OEMs.

Goodbye Pinion (aquired by Rotax btw) with your loud, noisy and heavy Motor, bulky Remote, heavy Batteries. It was fun but it is to assume that the 12-Gear DJI Motor will beat your product at any angle. Unfortunately.

Whoa!. This is the first I've heard of this and quite the claim. They would have filed patents by now if this was the case. Testing by OEMs implies post-alpha. As much as I would like this to be true, its straining credibility.

 

[whitymon]

Whoa!. This is the first I've heard of this and quite the claim. They would have filed patents by now if this was the case. Testing by OEMs implies post-alpha. As much as I would like this to be true, its straining credibility.

Yeah, any random sentence on forum without clear link to article or paper is just wind/noise. People takes too much facts out their butt these days.

 

[Canyon Shawn]

For this year a more modern geometry frame that doesn’t crack and a removable battery would be nice. I suspect new battery, with the battery being the same capacity, but lighter.

 

[Suns_PSD]

Regarding gearboxes, the loss in efficiency is inherent because of the spinning of clusters in bath oil, and even with a motor is still a significant problem. At some point, when adding watt hours has a negligible weight penalty (i.e. Solid state batteries being commonplace) it might be realistic.

The correct solution with modern tech is a hardwired and robust, short caged, wide ratio derailleur system and an all steel cassette, paired with modern motors.

I'd also add that a couple of years back I rode a gearbox belt driven bike, a Zerode, and was blown away with how smooth and quiet the rear suspension was. It was other level and I assumed that a derailleur equipped bike could never achieve that level of suspension performance because dozens of high-end bikes that I had owned before, never had. That said, my new Wild with a coil rear shock achieves 95% of that 'derailleur-less' feel. So maybe it's not as unobtainable as I once thought. The exact same shock was on my Relay a week before and felt nothing like that.

 

[G-Sport]

Toyota releases their first production SS EV in ‘27 soooooo we ain’t that far off.

Toyota have been promising cars with solid state batteries "in a year or two" for well over a decade, its nonsense. The scale they would need is going to take a long time yet. But SEMI-solidstate is plausible.

I too am sick of derailleurs, some sort of CVT like Intradrive (that's been a long time coming too) or an MGU like Pinion; would be lovely, IF they can make it smooth, reasonably light and quiet.

But the problem with doing that is that it will inevitably be a bit bigger too. I suspect that part of the delays with Intradrive are related to squeezing everything into the existing space of a Shimano motor because persuading frame builders to hollow out a big space for something new is a big ask.
Then again, DJI certainly have some momentum now. If they went to manufacturers with a motor & CVT that needed twice the space and a radical frame re-design to fit 2 years ago, they would have got very little interest, now they would get their hand bitten off.

Going lower power and higher voltage would also be very sensible. If they cut the power to 60Nm then the CVT/MGU becomes that much easier, smaller and lighter. And putting the voltage up might well make up for the efficiency loss of a CVT/MGU.

Faster charging would be good, but even better would be a super-light weight charger or even just a mains plug in the bike. I'm very happy to stop for a nice lunch and let the bike charge for an hour or more, but I don't want to carry a 1kg brick to do so.

 

[slickrock]

Regarding gearboxes, the loss in efficiency is inherent because of the spinning of clusters in bath oil, and even with a motor is still a significant problem. At some point, when adding watt hours has a negligible weight penalty (i.e. Solid state batteries being commonplace) it might be realistic.

The correct solution with modern tech is a hardwired and robust, short caged, wide ratio derailleur system and an all steel cassette, paired with modern motors.
...

Those chasing efficiency will not be enthralled by what Pinion, Effigear, Rohloff, Shimano, et. al., have done with internal gear transmissions over the decades. It's the other factors that play into the equation that can make them preferable in certain use cases. Outside of ebikes the main areas are for tour bikes and downhill bikes, were reliability, durability, resilience (from strikes), maintainability in muddy conditions (more for chains than belts) are important. Or simply for those those who truly harbor a disdain for derailleurs (ahem).

With e-bikes the equation shifts more towards geared transmissions because, besides the obvious benefit of power-assist offsetting weight and efficiency penalties, we have now already bought into the complexity of having a huge set of managed components (motor, battery, controller) now on our bikes, that have little control over, yet pretty much establish a big chunk of riding experience of the bike. What's strange is that his evolved outside of the transmission development, which on its own terms is marching to a different drummer from the MTB world: 12 gears, thin fragile chains, long cages, is a legacy that is hard to shed. What you are asking for a better derailleur solution for full power EMTB makes total sense, but it's still in the end an impedance mismatch between the motor and transmission systems (e.g. motor systems becoming even more powerful for derailleurs on the other side of this mismatch). Having a unified motor/transmission system would allow one to be optimized for the other and the market is asking for it. It's just that the sole product space Pinion offering leaves a lot be desired, even though the MGU product space is promising. Right now it's motor "grafted" to a co-located spur-gear carriage-sliding gearbox; still not feeling totally integrated. I really hope DJI or another large player redefines what a truly integrated and optimized motor/transmission system should be, and at the very least more efficient than the classical gearbox transmissions that derailleur users lament.

 

[tyrolrider]

Whoa!. This is the first I've heard of this and quite the claim. They would have filed patents by now if this was the case. Testing by OEMs implies post-alpha. As much as I would like this to be true, its straining credibility.

no it‘s rather like in the beginning when no one wanted to OE the M1. these are OEM EVT tests.

 

[slickrock]

no it‘s rather like in the beginning when no one wanted to OE the M1. these are OEM EVT tests.

In that case, I'll admit your comment is already in testing bei OEMs is more cryptic than it sounds. Your second sentence implies that OEMs means DJI itself is in an EVT phase where like they are 20-40% into a production release cycle, so this could make sense that patents are not quite ready to apply. But your first sentence no one wanted to OE the M1 implies the late stage product release looking for suitors for an MGU, which is what I thought you implied in your first post. If you are privy to provide more clarity and details on this 12-speed design and when the product may hit the market, it would be helpful.

 

[Scott_123]

I think the original question was: “Where does Avinox go from here?”

The real question should be: where does everyone else go from here? Shimano is basically out of the EMTB world. Specialized has their motor but only for their bikes. Bosch (like Shimano) for at least 2026 have been dropped by A LOT of manufacturers. Bosch will need a whole new package (Motor/Battery) to get Manufactuers interested again. No one is going to design their new EMTB with a giant fat down tube or a larger footprint motor again.

 

[Astro66]

I think the original question was: “Where does Avinox go from here?”

The real question should be: where does everyone else go from here? Shimano is basically out of the EMTB world. Specialized has their motor but only for their bikes. Bosch (like Shimano) for at least 2026 have been dropped by A LOT of manufacturers. Bosch will need a whole new package (Motor/Battery) to get Manufactuers interested again. No one is going to design their new EMTB with a giant fat down tube or a larger footprint motor again.

This is the the thing. Even Aventon who were featured on EMBN this week, with a new EMTB. Whilst the Chinese Gaboa motor seems great. That silhouette is hideous. Fat downtube and massive motorbike like bottom bracket area.

Whilst it's a well priced EMTB, only being 140/150, and that horrendous profile. It's just not going to cut it with the mainstream buyers.

 

[Scott_123]

This is the the thing. Even Aventon who were featured on EMBN this week, with a new EMTB. Whilst the Chinese Gaboa motor seems great. That silhouette is hideous. Fat downtube and massive motorbike like bottom bracket area.

Whilst it's a well priced EMTB, only being 140/150, and that horrendous profile. It's just not going to cut it with the mainstream buyers.

View attachment 181290

I might be wrong, but I think this bike will sell. They are disrupting the high price point in the EMTB market which people might be interested in.

 

[Astro66]

I might be wrong, but I think this bike will sell. They are disrupting the high price point in the EMTB market which people might be interested in.

It will sell to people just coming into the sport of EMTB. But not to those already in the sport, and looking for improvement.

I paid AUD$4700 for my 2025 Merida E160. That's a 160/160 with the same Rock Shox fork and shock as the cheapest USD$4600 Aventon. That's like 25% cheaper than the Aventon. So there are better options for those looking at the budget end.

Merida is also not selling these bikes in droves either. I only bought it as a breakdown bike. Which proved unfounded, so I sold it.

 

[Scott_123]

It will sell to people just coming into the sport of EMTB. But not to those already in the sport, and looking for improvement.

I paid AUD$4700 for my 2025 Merida E160. That's a 160/160 with the same Rock Shox fork and shock as the cheapest USD$4600 Aventon. That's like 25% cheaper than the Aventon. So there are better options for those looking at the budget end.

Merida is also not selling these bikes in droves either. I only bought it as a breakdown bike. Which proved unfounded, so I sold it.

I agree, that is what I was thinking.

 

[Polar]

Avinox is working full speed, new motor with integrated gearbox next year.
M1, M2 and M2s will be outdated, that's the sad part when developing is moving fast.

 

[DylanJM]

Avinox is working full speed, new motor with integrated gearbox next year.
M1, M2 and M2s will be outdated, that's the sad part when developing is moving fast.

They will alienate manufacturers if they move too quick. Manufactures need time to design, make and release bikes. Then they need enough time to recoup their investment through sales of said bikes. Many of the bikes just announced will only really be properly availble later this year when the season will be mostly over. If they drop an MGU this time next year I think alot of manufacturers will be a bit miffed (unless they manange to make it fit the frames build around the M2S).

 

[ZR1]

Nothing sad about progress, would love a compact refined mgu

I don't think upgrading motors would alientate brands, just gives them more features to market. If they carry on using the same mounting points there's no real downside? I think changing the mounting points frequently gives more of a headache to manufactuers with 'old' frames etc

 

[Polar]

They will alienate manufacturers if they move too quick. Manufactures need time to design, make and release bikes. Then they need enough time to recoup their investment through sales of said bikes. Many of the bikes just announced will only really be properly availble later this year when the season will be mostly over. If they drop an MGU this time next year I think alot of manufacturers will be a bit miffed (unless they manange to make it fit the frames build around the M2S).

What if it's a new Amflow model most of your arguments will fail?

 

[DylanJM]

What if it's a new Amflow model most of your arguments will fail?

If they reserve the MGU for their own bike brand only it will alienate the third party manufacturers even more. Not a good move to win a lot of new business and then fuck them over a year later.