The entire BEV push is a joke. It is difficult to think of any engineering implementation that is so completely flawed. It ranks alongside the similar politically motivated push to get everyone to change to diesel....that did not work out well for owners did it? The sooner we stop being led by the nose by politicians the sooner we get a sensibly designed engineering development path for both personal and commercial transport..
What does owning an ebike inform me about paying ( an excessive amount) to buy a BEV? Not a chance.....same applies to everyone I know.
You can improve your understanding of the current situation by understanding what is driving it. Consider carefully and learn:
EV's are currently quite expensive for a couple of primary reasons, neither one of which will have any real staying power when looking at the big picture. This means EV's will win the battle for market share with or without government help, it's just a matter of a few years for the current prices to come down. And prices will come down. Here's why:
1) Demand for EV's currently outstrips supply. For example, Tesla has been raising prices in a mostly ineffective attempt to reduce customer wait times. Many models have a 6-12 month or more wait times and that is not a good customer experience. Customers want to sign the papers and take delivery of their new car when THEY want it, not when the manufacturer is ready. Tesla has raised the prices of their cars multiple times in the last several years while growing production several fold. Even though Tesla cars lost the $7,500 federal tax credit over 3 years ago, Tesla continues to grow production by an astonishing 70% per year, the prices keep rising and the wait lists have been growing longer for years. This has led to the cars selling far above their "natural" price in a "balanced" market. Tesla currently has larger margins on EV production than ANY major manufacturer has on their internal combustion vehicles (except for boutique low volume manufacturers like Bently, Ferrari, etc.). It's around 30% profit while 15% profit is considered excellent in the auto business. Prices are high because demand outstrips supply.
2) Most manufacturer's struggle to make money on automaking and they have little experience with making EV's. That means they cannot make them as efficiently as Tesla yet. None of them sell their EV's at a profit, that means they would rather keep making and selling ICE cars and trucks. But they are not stupid and they can see that when your competitor is growing production at 70% annually, it doesn't take too many years of watching your automotive market share decline to get to the point where you lose volume efficiencies and can no longer sell your gasoline cars at a profit so they must switch or they lose the primary game they play, making and selling cars. Your finance arm cannot make good profits if you can't move the cars. This means they have to become more efficient at manufacturing or they will no longer exist. The reasons they are inefficient at making EV's are all the traditional reasons we have been over-paying for cars for decades: lack of manufacturing innovation, excessive out-sourcing, inefficient supply chains, inefficient dealership distribution model, labor unions that create inefficient workforces with little desire to perform, layers of bureaucracy and a corporate structure that is top heavy with highly compensated management. etc. etc. etc. There is a reason the average price of a new vehicle in the U.S. climbed to over $46,000 in 2020 and it was not because of EV's but because you and I have been getting ripped off for decades. But now legacy auto has to master an entirely new craft on top of all of these existing inefficiencies. But building an EV is completely different from building an ICE car. Now your engine manufacturing plants, your transmission plants and all the car designs waiting to be produced are obsolete. Engineers who specialize in exhaust systems and mufflers are obsolete. Those who design fuel injection systems, obsolete. Same with those who engineer gas tanks and fuel filling systems, gas gauges, catalytic converters, starter motors, alternators, water pumps, all obsolete.
But someone will make the cars of tomorrow so they will learn how to make the transition or someone else will make the cars instead. Either way, the prices will come down as supply catches up with demand. Because EV's actually cost LESS to build as Tesla is proving right now.
The economics of car pricing is an interesting thing to study. This whole capitalistic supply and demand thing actually works. So, those who say they will not save any money by buying an EV are mostly correct. Because the market is self-regulating. Everyone can't have the cheapest, best solution, so the price goes up until it's mostly a wash. There are people who save money by buying EV's instead of gasoline powered cars, but these people tend to be those who drive very high miles per year. Those are the people for whom an EV is the most valuable and who are willing to pay the most to be one of the lucky purchasers. Another group who comes out on top are those who can afford to treat themselves to a new car each year, or even every 2 or 3 years. Because EV's like Tesla's that have proven reliability have sky-high resale values compared to gasoline cars in a similar category. That low depreciation means it costs very little to buy a new car every couple of years.
Companies with engineering and manufacturing innovation greatness can make cars safer while simultaneously driving down the cost to produce them. They don't do it by "cheaping out", they do it by constantly striving to innovate new ways to make the product better and easier to build.
What does all this mean? You cannot stop an idea whose time has come. With or without government support, EV production will continue to increase, manufacturers will gain expertise making EV's, there will be volume efficiencies, further driving costs down, supply will catch up to demand and selling prices will become increasingly competitive in the race to see which maker can offer car buyers the most value. And I guarantee it won't be gasoline powered cars that win that race anymore than analogue MTB's will win against eMTB's.
Watch and see. The conclusion is inevitable and is going to play out a lot more quickly than most people believe. By 2028 EV's will outsell ICE.
