EMTBs have developed at a high pace. Since the beginning, say in 2016, pretty much everything has changed. Motors are half the weight and twice the peak power. The frames are unrecognizable, with a completely different geometry. And the batteries are hidden away, even though capacity has doubled. Even the wheels are different. Sure, they are as round now as they were back then. But the 2.8-3” tyres are nowhere to be seen anymore. Read more ...
Article: Where will 2026 take us?
- Thread starter knut7
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ottoshape
Well-known member
Did the article forget "costs have doubled or tripled"?
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Yeah, there are several reasons why bikes became more expensive. And that's why manufacturers now should focus harder on cutting cost, which they didn't have to do during the age of covid. But it remains to be seen of course.
I have a different view about the future of EMTB. The traditional trajectory of sales for products begins with an " early adopter phase". That phase is normally relatively short and characterised by high prices. I think to some extent that early adopter phase has been extended with EMTBS mainly because of the continued development of the products. Now however, every one and their dog knows what Geo works for different types of riding, and what component set delivers the goods for the riding enjoyed by the majority of buyers. I feel buyer requirements are now changing. Buyers are far better aware of what delivers value for money and the relative fragility/lack of reliability/ maintenace cost of an EMTB. Yes there will still buyers for whom money is no object and an absolute need to have the shiniest and latest, but I think that group is a small part of the full consumer market. I am not surprised one comment in the article refers to lower range/ally bikes being the only ones many shops are able to sell. The "power" struggle will I think be short lived. I dont know what percentage of the new EMTB market consists of existing EMTB owners as opposed to "newbies", but I suspect it is the majority. Most of those will know that extra power means faster wear and tear on drivetrains and 85/90 nm is more than enough for the vast majority of them anyway.
The brand that starts to focus on price, warranty, reliability, serviceability, will become the new market leader in terms of volume sales. Existing EMTB users already know what product components currently offer the best value for money.
No volume brands there. No volume sales even if you add all their sales together.There will be many more in 2026
Amflow PL Carbon, AL
Commencal Meta Power SX
Crestline RS 181 Specter Ed.
Crussis e-Full 12.11
Dengfu
Forbidden Druid
Haibike
Kross
Lapierre
Megamo Reason
Mondraker
Olympia HEKTON 180
Orange Phase Evo
Rotwild R.EX 900
Steppenwolf Tundra
Teewing Turbo Force, Flux One
Unno Mith
Velduro Rogue
Whistle AXR
YT Industries
E-Mountainbikes 2026 mit Drohnen-Power: Wie DJI den E-Bike-Markt aufmischt
Mehr E-Bikes mit DJI-Motor! Welche Bikes gibt es für die Saison 2026? Wir geben einen Überblick.www.emtb-news.de
I think you may be being misled by marketing speak! The figures refer to total market value. The motor and eco system on any bike is only a fraction of the total bike purchase price. I am not trying to downplay the success of Avinox, just pointing out that until and unless a major brand in the market starts to use it, the overall footprint will be small. I have not heard of some of the brands in your list but most seem to be either boutique brands and some others ( YT/Orange etc) are recovering from administration.
My
My guess is that the new avinox motor will be a cheaper slightly heavier version of the m1 with the focus being on high volume cheaper bikes
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The most important and greatest progress will come from battery technology. Significant changes are in store for cells and cell chemistry in the automotive industry. Currently, the top range is around 700 Wh per kg. If parts of this are transferred to battery technology for bikes, it will result in a real leap forward in terms of overall weight. Incidentally, I see DJI as being way ahead here, as their residual portfolio in cell purchasing and battery construction means they are talking about completely different batches than all other manufacturers.
I have been in the business of battery powered vehicles for over 30 years now predominantly forklifts and I have forever heard that huge gains are just around the corner but no major energy breakthroughs have ever transpired so I am certainly not holding my breath. Software integration does incrementally continue to improve which is a good thing
I understand exactly what you mean, but I'm not talking about something that has only been announced, but something that will be on display at the 2026 Peking Auto Show. Of course, it won't be 700 Wh/kg batteries, but significantly better than current Wh/kg ratios.
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One thing has stayed the same over the 10 years. Haibike units are still as ugly as ever! 
Meanwhile due to the continued incidence of ev battery fires in China the Chinese Govt has stated that all ev batteries from 2026 must be made such that thermal runaway is completely impossible. There was no information from battery suppliers how they would achieve that.
In reality there has been no significant development in lithium battery pack safety, performance, cost, or weight......all of which highlight the simple fact that it was the wrong technology to start with for the automotive industry.
At least, when applied to emtbs, the battery is removeable and replaceable, has a dedicated charger and is reasonably well protected.
I understand this is a emtb forum but its also interesting whats going to happen with normal bikes. Is there still a market for 7k normal bikes with so much being added to the emtb side. I own a normal bike that i got ex demo, it was 7k new i would not pay anywhere near that for a normal with the price of ebikes and sls now.
Only in very specific cases/people that's for sure. I think if most were spending £5k+ then it's Eeb.
I recently spent £5000+ on a frame only, but it was very specific case.
I been wanting a forbidden druid (analogue) since 2023 i managed to get one last year for £3000 full bike build. i think the bikes like £7000 new which is insane. I use to swap bikes quite a bit but the devaluation on non ebikes is so bad now.
Hm, there have been a lot of developments in LFP batteries in recent years. I don't know if you speak (understand) German, but if so, I recommend Prof. Fichtner's lecture, for example: He is one of Germany's leading scientists in the field of batteries. In China in particular, enormous progress has been made in the areas of LFP in terms of charging capacity, cell chemistry (and thus materials used), cell flammability, charging speed, and prices. One of the reasons why China has set the relevant requirements is that only Chinese manufacturers are currently in a position to meet them.
7K is chump change for road and gravel market - and I would think more profitable too
Cinsu
Consumers are not interested in technology......only in price and performance. People are aware that the battery pack of an ev represents a huge risk and not just from fire. A terminal battery fault requiring replacement effectively writes off any ev more than a couple of years old.
We don't have that problem although a new 700/750 battery is still stupidly expensive. We do however share the problem of the associated electronics that come with battery powered electric motors. Very few in the motor trade or indeed local bike shops are able test and repair , and largely resort to just changing out components on a trial basis.....assuming they actually have stock of those components.
We don't have that problem although a new 700/750 battery is still stupidly expensive. We do however share the problem of the associated electronics that come with battery powered electric motors. Very few in the motor trade or indeed local bike shops are able test and repair , and largely resort to just changing out components on a trial basis.....assuming they actually have stock of those components.
Well, that has nothing to do with the fact that batteries have developed significantly and we can expect a significantly improved WH to KG ratio.
This: People are aware that the battery pack of an EV represents a huge risk, and not just from fire. A terminal battery fault requiring replacement effectively writes off any EV more than a couple of years old.
True, it's just like with a combustion engine when the engine breaks down, except that batteries break down much less often than combustion engines. But I'm not discussing that here, because it has no place in this thread.
Amflow set the EMTB world on their heels in 2024/2025. They didn’t have the best frame or kit and you can argue if it was the best EMTB motor (it was). Amflow offered what many people wanted at a price that was extremely competitive to everyone else (still expensive). Moving forward everyone else is going to have to step up. We don’t need more power, we need lightweight full power bikes that attract peoples interest. Amflow/Avinox woke the competitors up in 2025 which is good for the consumer. Maybe in 2026 they can respond, but I doubt it, because most have their engineering done and production has started. My guess is 2027 will be the year as long as the industry can weather the downturn the market has been experiencing.
Umm ...... Combustion engined vehicles are 60 times more likely to suffer a fire. This has been confirmed by insurance companies data on claims for car fires. NRMA is the biggest vehicle insurer in my state.
Did you know ICE vehicles pose fire risks 60 times higher than EVs?
A new study by Anidjar & Levine on vehicle safety has shown that internal combustion engine (ICE) vehicles, including those that run on gasoline or diesel, experience 60 times more fires than electric vehicles (EVs). With 1,530 fires per 100,000 vehicles compared to EVs’ 25 fires, this contrast...
www.evengineeringonline.com
Understanding electric vehicle fires: A comprehensive guide
Any new technology can come with concerning risks and challenges. However, you’ll be glad to know that EV battery fires are very rare.
Anyway ...... IMO, 2026 will see Chinese EMTBs, Motors, Spares and accessories, make further inroads into the predominantly EU and US supplied market.
Now I know this won't make many happy. But Australia used to be the last place to receive the latest and greatest EMTB innovation. Now with our close ties to China. We are now one of the first. We even got the Amflow before America.
Teewing has been picked up by one of our biggest bicycle retail outlets. And high end EMTB prices are reasonable. Lower end EMTB prices are the cheapest I've seen them.
In total it has meant many of the competing brands have had to reduce their prices. And spares are much cheaper and readily available to access through China.
The result is I ride more, and more aggressively because I'm not worried about wear and tear, and breakages.
Bring on 2026. I need to add more thoroughbreds to the stable ......
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DJI has a much faster development product cycle. Just look at their drones and cameras. The 3-4 year EMTB motor/battery upgrade cycle won’t cut it anymore and the big players (Bosch / Specialized) know this. Expect the EMBT world to change much more quickly in the motor and battery department.
We really don't know what the Avinox development product cycle is; and I don't believe we can directly transpose DJI drone or camera lifecycles to Avinox motors.
I am not claiming to know, that is for sure. I’m repeating what I have read in a few articles from so-called bike industry people. Whether this turns out to be the case, we shall see. DJI is Avinox, just re-branded for obvious reasons.
