With these E-CVT's kill the rest of the market?

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Just for the sake of clarity, if you run out of battery does that make these bikes unridable being that they have no physical gears to actually change?
I read that they will have a limp mode - like they do now as a reserve and for AXS shifting
 
Just for the sake of clarity, if you run out of battery does that make these bikes unridable being that they have no physical gears to actually change?
Who knows, there isn't a production bike yet, but seems likely they will still have a means for changing gear when the motor cuts.
 
He has a point

He has a great point, however he seems to be talking about the Rivian bike which is a "dynamo" and not a direct drive, more "Pedal by Wire".

I am not sure why he has the e-cvt type pictured (Gobao / Avinox) which of course are direct drive through complex planetary gearing.
 

Ride feel starts at 3:30.

Just my opinion, but yes I think these will have an important place in the emerging high powered Class 2+ e-bike segment and I think they make great sense. But I think they will be relegated to that segment of the market ultimately due to lower efficiency, larger batteries & higher weights.

It's going to be fun to watch for sure.

Think of the All Mountain light e-bike market as like the Mazda Miata Manual transmission of the e-bike market. Built more for high engagement, maximum involvement and back to the basics.
 
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Just my opinion, but yes I think these will have an important place in the emerging high powered Class 2+ e-bike segment and I think they make great sense. But I think they will be relegated to that segment of the market ultimately due to lower efficiency, larger batteries & higher weights.
Hmm, Alex Bike Tester did say it may be a “door opener to cheaper bikes“ which may reduce the cost of higher-spec bikes too. Nothing wrong with that, right?
 

Ride feel starts at 3:30.

Just my opinion, but yes I think these will have an important place in the emerging high powered Class 2+ e-bike segment and I think they make great sense. But I think they will be relegated to that segment of the market ultimately due to lower efficiency, larger batteries & higher weights.

It's going to be fun to watch for sure.

Think of the All Mountain light e-bike market as like the Mazda Miata Manual transmission of the e-bike market. Built more for high engagement, maximum involvement and back to the basics.
I'm glad that he spent time describing the feel of the motor at the pedals; that it felt more response in boost mode implies that there's more software tuning to be done, which is easier to pull off than fundamental mechanical gear changes. Clearly Rob was more blown away than Alex and if I had to place bets, it's no surprise who's opinion I'd trust more.
 
He has a point

Kinda.

He describes a series hybrid, but that's not what either of these MGUs are; they're parallel hybrids which are far more efficient. Comparing a Prius (car) with an MGU (bike) is a fools errand, there are too many other factors, but remember that a lot of the power from the rider is directly transmitted through the planetary gear, with only some of it (or none of it if the battery has enough charge) being redirected back to power the ratio/sun motor.

Next up, his efficiency numbers are right for a singlespeed, but that doesn't matter in this case, because the MGU competition is a traditional gearbox, which has far lower efficiency: Which Bicycle Gearbox Has The Highest Drivetrain Efficiency? Rohloff, Pinion, Shimano - CYCLINGABOUT.com

Anyhow, until we actually see these things out in the real world (and until somebody does a methodical efficiency test), we're all just old men yelling at clouds on this topic :D It's going to be interesting seeing these things in real life; a bicycle has far different, and in some ways simpler needs than a car. No reverse, no starter, for example.
 
Pour éviter toute confusion, je pense qu’il est important d’utiliser les termes appropriés : MGU pour la boîte de vitesses mécanique (qu’elle soit intégrée au moteur ou non), et ECVT pour la transmission hybride (ensemble d’engrenages planétaires, deux moteurs électriques et moteur à combustion interne ou puissance humaine).
 
So far it's killed the Pinion MGU, let's see how long the cassette/derailleur manufacturers can stay alive. There will always be a place for derailleurs in the future, but a much smaller one?
 
So far it's killed the Pinion MGU, let's see how long the cassette/derailleur manufacturers can stay alive. There will always be a place for derailleurs in the future, but a much smaller one?
What have you heard ?
 
What have you heard ?
 
In answer to the question, I doubt it. Transmission is a very good product IME. The price will also continue to drop over time. I think that CVTs/Virtual gearboxes will struggle to come close in terms of responsiveness. They'll be great for urban bikes etc, but not for mountain bikes IMO.
 
IMHO good analysis and summary of this invention. From a german website, browser can translate:

I agree and good analysis of the industry, including commuters, trekking and cargo

“The next big battle will not only take place at the engine. It takes place with the complete drive system. Whoever best combines the engine, transmission, battery, display, app, charger, safety and service in the future will shape the market. And that's exactly where Gobao and Avinox are now facing each other“
 
High end bikes are a very small part of the market.

Some might be shocked at how many 26" wheel bikes, front derailleurs, etc. are still sold every year.

That said, this sort of 2 wheeled electrified transportation certainly makes a great deal of sense for much of the planet for commuting, but then why pedal at all for much of those applications?
 
That said, this sort of 2 wheeled electrified transportation certainly makes a great deal of sense for much of the planet for commuting, but then why pedal at all for much of those applications?
Humans were asking this very question back in the 60s (I delivered papers with a moped)
Screenshot 2026-07-01 at 9.16.26 AM.webp
 
CVT transmissions in cars generally suck; However in a bike this may be a really nice application, we shall see. The whole gear-box thing in my opinion is a dead end, except for maybe the commuter market. If anyone can make it work my bet is on Avinox. If they can make it work, make it reliable and make it comparable in performance the market will change very quickly.
 
Proof will definitely be in the pudding, but we can be fairly sure of a few things:-

1. Efficiency will probably be quite a lot lower.
Efficiency of an e-CVT is not constant. There is a "sweet spot" where the sun is stationary and efficiency is highest.
Losses aren't just in the planetary set. e-CVT's in cars work with an ICE that is happy at 1500-5000rpm. Big electric motors that like similar or higher rpms, and an output at several hundred rpm (at least in the range where you care most about efficiency). E-Bikes have a human input at 40-100rpm, outputs at 10-300rpm say, and typically use small electric motors that turn fairly fast (thousands of rpm). To get the torques needed to control the planetary, both electric motors are going to need several stages of reduction, with losses in both in most "gear" ratios.
Then there are the switching losses in "gears" where one motor is generating.

2. When the battery gets low or cuts out. That "sweet spot" for efficiency is going to be important. If it is chosen wisely then pedaling at that ratio is going to be optimal.

3. Because of the nature of the gear train to each motor and the electromagnetic "resistance" that keeps you in a particular "gear", it is going to feel a little spongy compared to a derailleur. But I don't expect this to be bad. Sprag hubs have a feel like this as the sprags cam into drive and it actually feels really nice, less jarring than a ratchet pawl engaging.


I think overall the ecvt will make an even bigger divide between SL and Lazy (*sorry full power) bikes. The slightly heavier eCVT motor will probably get paired with fairly large batteries and suit heavy long travel "shuttle" bikes best. The SL will need to make the most of it's differences, and favour smaller batteries, shorter travel and a more "traditional" ride feel and emphasis on getting a substantial work-out.
However, I would LOVE to be proved wrong on this. If Avinox announced a MG-mini with half the power/torque and a substantially lighter weight, then maybe that would mean the motor was lighter than current SL motors plus derailleur and cassette etc. in which case I would happily overlook a little bigger battery to cope with the efficiency issues, if I could ride it like my SL.
 
Proof will definitely be in the pudding, but we can be fairly sure of a few things:-

1. Efficiency will probably be quite a lot lower.
Efficiency of an e-CVT is not constant. There is a "sweet spot" where the sun is stationary and efficiency is highest.
Losses aren't just in the planetary set. e-CVT's in cars work with an ICE that is happy at 1500-5000rpm. Big electric motors that like similar or higher rpms, and an output at several hundred rpm (at least in the range where you care most about efficiency). E-Bikes have a human input at 40-100rpm, outputs at 10-300rpm say, and typically use small electric motors that turn fairly fast (thousands of rpm). To get the torques needed to control the planetary, both electric motors are going to need several stages of reduction, with losses in both in most "gear" ratios.
Then there are the switching losses in "gears" where one motor is generating.

2. When the battery gets low or cuts out. That "sweet spot" for efficiency is going to be important. If it is chosen wisely then pedaling at that ratio is going to be optimal.

3. Because of the nature of the gear train to each motor and the electromagnetic "resistance" that keeps you in a particular "gear", it is going to feel a little spongy compared to a derailleur. But I don't expect this to be bad. Sprag hubs have a feel like this as the sprags cam into drive and it actually feels really nice, less jarring than a ratchet pawl engaging.


I think overall the ecvt will make an even bigger divide between SL and Lazy (*sorry full power) bikes. The slightly heavier eCVT motor will probably get paired with fairly large batteries and suit heavy long travel "shuttle" bikes best. The SL will need to make the most of it's differences, and favour smaller batteries, shorter travel and a more "traditional" ride feel and emphasis on getting a substantial work-out.
However, I would LOVE to be proved wrong on this. If Avinox announced a MG-mini with half the power/torque and a substantially lighter weight, then maybe that would mean the motor was lighter than current SL motors plus derailleur and cassette etc. in which case I would happily overlook a little bigger battery to cope with the efficiency issues, if I could ride it like my SL.
It’s not spongy; it’s dampened! 😆
 
Proof will definitely be in the pudding, but we can be fairly sure of a few things:-

1. Efficiency will probably be quite a lot lower.
Efficiency of an e-CVT is not constant. There is a "sweet spot" where the sun is stationary and efficiency is highest.
Losses aren't just in the planetary set. e-CVT's in cars work with an ICE that is happy at 1500-5000rpm. Big electric motors that like similar or higher rpms, and an output at several hundred rpm (at least in the range where you care most about efficiency). E-Bikes have a human input at 40-100rpm, outputs at 10-300rpm say, and typically use small electric motors that turn fairly fast (thousands of rpm). To get the torques needed to control the planetary, both electric motors are going to need several stages of reduction, with losses in both in most "gear" ratios.
Then there are the switching losses in "gears" where one motor is generating.

2. When the battery gets low or cuts out. That "sweet spot" for efficiency is going to be important. If it is chosen wisely then pedaling at that ratio is going to be optimal.

3. Because of the nature of the gear train to each motor and the electromagnetic "resistance" that keeps you in a particular "gear", it is going to feel a little spongy compared to a derailleur. But I don't expect this to be bad. Sprag hubs have a feel like this as the sprags cam into drive and it actually feels really nice, less jarring than a ratchet pawl engaging.


I think overall the ecvt will make an even bigger divide between SL and Lazy (*sorry full power) bikes. The slightly heavier eCVT motor will probably get paired with fairly large batteries and suit heavy long travel "shuttle" bikes best. The SL will need to make the most of it's differences, and favour smaller batteries, shorter travel and a more "traditional" ride feel and emphasis on getting a substantial work-out.
However, I would LOVE to be proved wrong on this. If Avinox announced a MG-mini with half the power/torque and a substantially lighter weight, then maybe that would mean the motor was lighter than current SL motors plus derailleur and cassette etc. in which case I would happily overlook a little bigger battery to cope with the efficiency issues, if I could ride it like my SL.

I agree with much of what you are saying here and I think we are quickly marching towards a clear dividing line where we have Class 1 e-bikes & these other things. I'm not anti-technology at all, but a self contained motor transmission controlled by computers, just feels like a motorcycle to me, not a bike. And the pedals seem for show more than anything. Like really, how much are they actually doing at that point with such poor efficiency? Fake gear shifting and all of that. Seems like we are adding a ton of weight and complexity when a basic electric motor with a hand-controlled throttle and footpegs would do the same thing much more elegantly and save a ton of weight. That doesn't mean it won't be bad*ss.

As far as replacing the rest of the market, nah. People will ride them, they will work well, but it's just not going to feel enough like a bike for many people imo, and they will pass.

I know this, my next e-bike will have to be substantially lighter than my current full power e-bike that only weighs 48.7#s and power is nearly a last consideration. Anything around 600w/ 75nm is fantastic for 'bike' riding. <45#s in an Enduro build is the next frontier.
 
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I agree with much of what you are saying here and I think we are quickly marching towards a clear dividing line where we have Class 1 e-bikes & these other things. I'm not anti-technology at all, but a self contained motor transmission controlled by computers, just feels like a motorcycle to me, not a bike. And the pedals seem for show more than anything. Like really, how much are they actually doing at that point with such poor efficiency? Fake gear shifting and all of that. Seems like we are adding a ton of weight and complexity when a basic electric motor with a hand-controlled throttle and footpegs would do the same thing much more elegantly and save a ton of weight. That doesn't mean it won't be bad*ss.

As far as replacing the rest of the market, nah. People will ride them, they will work well, but it's just not going to feel enough like a bike for many people imo, and they will pass.

I know this, my next e-bike will have to be substantially lighter than my current full power e-bike that only weighs 48.7#s and power is nearly a last consideration. Anything around 600w/ 75nm is fantastic for 'bike' riding. <45#s in an Enduro build is the next frontier.
Just to be clear, I don't think the efficiency is going to be that bad. Maybe 10% worse than a typical setup. And with batteries slowly improving it may not be a huge deal even for a lightweight bike. But I don't think that that will even be an option anytime soon.
 
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