A single (or even a few) motor mount is very unlikely I think.Agree completely! Standards can totally evolve as technology dictates.
A possible bolt pattern standard idea:
- Full Fat Motors
- SL power motors
The difference between the full power motors in size / weight / power output is pretty minimal right now. Most seem to be around 2.7 KG and share very similar physical properties and volumetric dimensions. I dont see a standard bolt pattern standard restricting innovation here. Also, standard bolt patterns will likely allow frame designers more freedom (in time and resource). There would be no need to keep adhering to motor OEM's slight variations.
This standard could obviously be changed as tech progress dictates. But no doubt we will reach a time (soon) where there's only so much progress that can be had with a full power motor and we reach the limits of physics.
Batteries are just long rectangular tubes that hold cells. All the manufacturers offer different sizes and fittings which is kinda pointless. Shimano EP800 and EP801 batteries are exactly the same size, dimension and port, but the EP801 battery does not work in an Ep800 system. This is ridiculous.
Some standards in other industries that have worked:
So this can for sure work in the bicycles industry. And it can still maintain innovation.
- HDMI (A joint venture between 7 companies including Sony, Panasonic and Toshiba)
- USB - C (Virtually every consumer electronic device now)
- PCI Express: (For computer expansion cards to work together)
- NACS: EV car charging standards (AKA the Tesla Plug) that most EV manufacturers are adopting for North America. Even Toyota, the worlds largest car manufacturer have agreed to use Tesla's car charging standard.
Gearbox options like Pinion's MGU are hopefully going to become the norm, and squeezing all this into the same space as just a motor is very restricting.
Intra-drive are trying to do this, but to get the space they need they have bulged out in front of the chainring which restricts its size AND they need some space between the mounts which isn't always available.
On the other end of the spectrum, asking Fazua or TQ to convert their small units into big lumps to fit a standard mount is possible, but negates a lot of the aesthetic appeal of their smaller form factors.
The charging standardisation is possible, fairly easy and very desirable. It allows ebike tourism to really flourish and makes ebikes a much more viable form of transport for longer journeys. It also offers the option of reducing battery size, which would reduce weight and cost significantly which are both great for increasing adoption.
Having a standard charging port also opens up the possibility of range extenders being (somewhat) universal which should reduce their cost through volume.
I don't see progress in batteries, motors or controllers slowing down. Just as one example; adding silicone to the Anode is going to boost battery capacity significantly in the near future, when this happens packs can shrink.

