How mainstream do you think EMTB's will get?

[Rob Rides EMTB]

I know that EMTB's are still quite niche and represent a small market share of bikes, but how much do you think that they will grow over the next few years? With all of the big manufacturers getting on board they must be spending hundreds of thousands, if not more, on R&D, tooling, manufacturing, retailing and marketing. They will be expecting a return on all of this.

How big do you think that EMTB's will become. Do you think that they will ever sell more than analog? If so, when do you think this may happen?

Personally I think that as the technology matures and the price decreases and the market 'accepts' EMTB's, that they have a bright future ahead.

Interested in your predictions.

 

[Doomanic]

Not too soon I hope, once eMTBs become mainstream I’ll be at the back on all the climbs again...

 

[Doomanic]

On a serious note, I think there will have to be a significant leap in battery technology before eMTBs hit the big time. Many people I speak to about my bike express surprise that the range is so limited.

 

[Japuserid]

On a serious note, I think there will have to be a significant leap in battery technology before eMTBs hit the big time. Many people I speak to about my bike express surprise that the range is so limited.

Hey Doomanic

This surprised me a little, yes battery performance could always be better, but I often do 40+ miles of track and trail on a single charge and this is way more distance than most non assisted Mtb riders manage, makes you wonder how realistic people really are.

I think the current level of technology is pretty damn good and getting even better, fairly rapidly. Can't see any real reason to sit on the fence waiting for the next big step, from here on in I think it will be relatively small steps in development, just look back at the last five years or so, obviously rather have the latest geometry's etc but the earlier bikes still did the job.

I think they are 'mainstream' especially in Europe as sales figures continue to climb year on year, I see in Belgium they now account for 45% of sales, that's total units not Euro's.

 

[Doomanic]

You’re doing better on range than me although you don’t say how much climbing that entails. 28 miles is the best I’ve seen so far and that was all Eco with over 3k ft of climbing.

 

[Eckythump]

In that EMBN interview the other day with Fabien Barel he said 4 out of 5 bikes sold in his area were ebikes!
As more appear on trails the more they will be accepted. It has been quite a while since I had a negative comment when out riding my ebike. If people show interest I try and get them on it to give it a go. Most admit it wasn’t what they were expecting and a positive about the experience.
I think the sticking point is the 25-35 year age group. They seem to think ebikes are ‘selling out’. The iPad generation think they are great, and those of us that cannot be bothered with the slog up any more are the same.
EMBN and Sam Pilgrim seem to be doing a good job of changing opinions.

 

[Japuserid]

You’re doing better on range than me although you don’t say how much climbing that entails. 28 miles is the best I’ve seen so far and that was all Eco with over 3k ft of climbing.

Hey Doomanic , I don't use Strava or anything but I just googled Princetown, which is near the top of this particular route and I would say in total its about 1400 ft of climbing and 42-43 miles, normally at the finish my remaining range is down to about 3 - 4 miles (Eco) but my brother always has a bite more left 6 - 10. That's a mix of Eco and Tour. Rider, bike and kit, all up weight for me is about 110 KG , brother 100 kg. I am a bit heavier and always take a back pack and I definitely use Tour more than my Brother.

 

[Slowroller]

Unless we get better access in the US, it's going to remain a niche inside of a niche inside of a niche. I can't imagine trying to road trip with only an ebike, you'd be shut out of too many great places to ride. For me anyway, it's a fun second mtb, but not my primary ride.

 

[Rob Rides EMTB]

In that EMBN interview the other day with Fabien Barel he said 4 out of 5 bikes sold in his area were ebikes!
As more appear on trails the more they will be accepted. It has been quite a while since I had a negative comment when out riding my ebike. If people show interest I try and get them on it to give it a go. Most admit it wasn’t what they were expecting and a positive about the experience.
I think the sticking point is the 25-35 year age group. They seem to think ebikes are ‘selling out’. The iPad generation think they are great, and those of us that cannot be bothered with the slog up any more are the same.
EMBN and Sam Pilgrim seem to be doing a good job of changing opinions.

I just watched that episode. That sales percentage is really interesting. Not sure if it’s true as he’s obviously touting the new Canyon EMTB, but if it is 80% on ‘all of the shops in this area’ like he mentions, then that’s pretty impressive.

 

[Varaxis]

I expect that ebike trends will follow electric cars. Right now they're a niche still, not very close to replacing non-electric vehicles for most consumers.

Hard to predict what changes will be introduced that change the opinions of those reluctant to try ebikes. There will likely be more electronic integration: built-in GPS, security (wireless fob), traction control/ABS (anti-slip), communication with other nearby users (collision prevention).

There will be significant anti-electrification. People will declare to be more comfortable with what they are familiar with, rejecting change. People will be demanding to be less connected; demanding to be less digitized and more analog; demanding to be free from "big brother/nanny safety aids" and free to do what they want in privacy, without anything tracking them (tin foil hat).

 

[Kiwi in Wales]

I expect that ebike trends will follow electric cars. Right now they're a niche still, not very close to replacing non-electric vehicles for most consumers.

Hard to predict what changes will be introduced that change the opinions of those reluctant to try ebikes. There will likely be more electronic integration: built-in GPS, security (wireless fob), traction control/ABS (anti-slip), communication with other nearby users (collision prevention).

There will be significant anti-electrification. People will declare to be more comfortable with what they are familiar with, rejecting change. People will be demanding to be less connected; demanding to be less digitized and more analog; demanding to be free from "big brother/nanny safety aids" and free to do what they want in privacy, without anything tracking them (tin foil hat).

It sounds like due to the access challenges in the US you are right regarding it still being a niche market over there. I really hope things progress a bit more for you and the various anti ebikers start accepting them into the fold.

Here in the UK we are in a more positive position where we can ride anywhere a normal analogue bike can ride. There were initial push backs from a few trail centres, Bike Park Wales was one of them. However, now they are actually hiring out ebikes to ride on their trails which shows you that people are embracing the ebike concept, promoting it commercially and also for the fun factor it gives to everyone.

Not sure if you saw EddieJ’s ‘48 hour ebike demo delivered to your door for £50’ review? There are a couple of large and well known bike retailers doing this which is bound to promote the positive side of ebikes even more as it will expose more people to the concept of ebikes and will I hope change the opinions of those reluctant to try them.

I am not sure where we are heading technology wise but ‘in my opinion’ I think we are in a very exciting time and things can only improve.

I am not 100% what you mean about there will be significant anti-electrification as you mention being less connected, less digitised, more analogue, free from big brother, more privacy etc. At this point in time the majority of the entire world today is entwined in something that is the the exact opposite of what you are saying is going to happen. I know there are many people that want to restrict how open things are and that is fair enough as we all have our own opinions on how we perceive the world should be but I really cannot see young or old wanting to be less connected or less digitised as that would mean them having to give up the Internet, their smart phones, their tablets, their laptops, their PCs which ‘in my opinion’ is not happen any time soon.

 

[Stoddy]

Hiya, I think it'll reach a 50/50 situation. As you say, the prices will surely come down and the battery tech, etc will increase. I think I'm actually a bit quicker on the downhills with my e bike, and certainly have more fun on the ups! In fact, I've completely changed my up routes to incorporate more technical climbs. I do still like throwing my YT Capra around as its comparatively so light, which I think, is why 'Analogue' bikes will always be with us.
As time goes on, the 'die hards' will undoubtedly accept that e bikes are here to stay, that said, I still cringe when I round a corner on a climb and see a bunch of 'Analogue' bikers up a head, slow down, or catch up and deal with the comments!!? Awks!!!

 

[Doomanic]

I still cringe when I round a corner on a climb and see a bunch of 'Analogue' bikers up a head, slow down, or catch up and deal with the comments!!? Awks!!!

I do wonder what is the best way to deal with this situation.

 

[Eckythump]

I do wonder what is the best way to deal with this situation.

I just hang back, they normally notice you after a bit and wave you through with a couple of envious comments?

 

[Eckythump]

I think I'm actually a bit quicker on the downhills with my e bike, and certainly have more fun on the ups! In fact, I've completely changed my up routes to incorporate more technical climbs. I do still like throwing my YT Capra around as its comparatively so light, which I think, is why 'Analogue' bikes will always be with us.

Emtb’s definitely excel on rock gardens, their weight and plus tyres do a great job of taming them. They are also really stable in the air, brought my jumping on no end.
Like you say it’s still great to get back on the clockwork bike as it is a very different feeling.

 

[Kernow]

I do wonder what is the best way to deal with this situation.

That is one Iam wondering about , having always been that analog biker getting overtaken by an ebiker who is obviously not working very hard and clearly using max assistance , I hear the comments from the group etc , they vary from wow I need one of them , to lazy bugger , just don’t overtake unless your confident of staying ahead when the climb ends . And dont ride alongside chatting while the analog biker can’t talk because he’s out of breath
I know I’ll get some grief from my lot if Iam not looking like Iam putting in good effort

 

[Varaxis]

@Kiwi in Wales Anti-electrification is more against things becoming electronic, simplified, and more easily accessible. Basically, resisting technological advancement, which brings the performance of fine engineering to the masses. These people love the craftsmanship of finely engineered stuff, and don't want to see the demand of such plummet, as it affects their current pass-times.

There's still a lot of hate on automatic transmissions in the car world. Car fans appreciate manual transmission with various styles of clutches, since the clutch control gives a driver more options. They even look down on paddle-controlled dual clutch transmission, which is basically two transmissions married, with one shifting to the next gear while the other is in use. I don't know too much about cars, but one guy laughed at how I asked what overdrive was (Toyota auto)--apparently he didn't know either, as I discovered it was just the car's "eco mode", and turning it off allow the engine to tap into its higher torque and HP band at higher RPMs, rather than sticking to more fuel efficient lower RPMs and shifting up earlier. He just blamed autos for his lack of knowledge and judged it to be "shit", and that he should be free to use power and fuel as he pleased.

Digital photography - photographers buy 10+ lbs worth of glass for their cameras to "stylize" their shots to all have what they call "bokeh" which essentially is like focused depth perception, where things near and far are blurred, only keeping the subject at a specific depth in focus. The lenses affects their exposure, so they shoot in the sun or bring all sorts of light to not suffer under-exposure, or extend their exposure time and use tripods and require the target to be still. Now people are ditching the lights and treating underexposure as a desirable trait. They see the detailed shots that have entire frame in focus with good exposure and white balance as being artistically undesirable, while others see it as being more realistic and claim that you can add the artistic touch in post. People are lazy in post and there's a love-hate relationship with filters, so now it's about getting the most obscure camera shot and crediting the cam for "filtering", which photogs apparently love. The only thing that changed really was the storage format, SD card vs 35mm film, and a few important creature comforts like being able to review shots immediately.

Vinyl over digital music - you might remember records for being scratchy, poppy, skipping, repeating, and/or needing records to be cleaned, loaded, flipped, and changed, setting the pitch/speed, and babying the record player since it's a piece of precision engineering with delicate parts. A lot of downsides, but people still like this experience and feel the depth of the music is worth it. Those in the know, will argue that digital can offer an experience of at least the same level of quality.

Tube amps vs digital - with most amps, when you turn up the volume, the sound becomes distorted. On a tube amp, if you turn up the volume, the tubes limit the intensity to deliver maximum "punch". If you go too loud, the distortion that tubes made sounded cooler than distortion on a digital amp. People grew up liking such sounds and wanted to mimic those who inspired them. Users have the power to make digital amps sound similar, but their reality didn't match their expectations why trying familiarize themselves. Boost the bass and treble and turn it up loud and it sounds horrible. The tube amps "unboosted" the bass and treble at higher volumes, in a digressive curve, while digital amps raised them linearly as the volume increased. People were sold on amps that limited how bad they could make it sound. Now digital amps have presets which are being more accepted, thanks to lower cost, size, weight, etc.

RC2 forks and CCDB shocks - too many settings for some people. Some people prefer set and forget. Even air pressure + rebound is too much for some people, requiring help from tuners or a shockwiz. Those with experience love adjustability though. What if it all of this was electronic, simplified, and more accessible? If there was a tuning market that was endangered, you might hear them cry out, but right now they're probably overbooked for servicing and are growing weary of people repeating the same questions.

Many more examples regarding how people get worked up over value of personal expression for entertainment purposes (e.g. "26 ain't dead", "PC master race"), but I'll wrap it up here.

It's similar to the fear of automation replacing jobs. People see value in old skills and fear such skills will be lost in the future. People fear they will be displaced, losing their usefulness in the world. They may desperately seek some form of fulfillment, perhaps arguing that some of their skills, such as drifting a car on demand, by modulating the use of a niche Japanese-brand clutch, is a special and desirable skill that isn't an option in technologically advanced cars. They want people to open up to them, rather than the future. The reality is that technology can be created to mimic these skills, perhaps at the touch of a button. Imagine there being a wheelie function on an ebike, press it and the front wheel will pop up and it'll control the braking and acceleration to keep it in the balance point. This technology is in reach.

I'm trying to hold myself back from judging or mocking, so I'll just say people are pretty passionate about such things that have little impact outside of their personal world. It's like they want to leave a mark on the world, inclined to show new generations the "fun" in how they chose to fool around, emphasizing how they spent their time and effort to overcome challenges in their time (e.g. walking uphill both ways). Apparently grunting, making gutteral explosive sounds, and reminiscing is preferred by these types over "whining" (both the motor sound and about 1st-world problems) and disappearing quietly in the distance and not looking back.

 

[outerlimits]

There are just too many dumb people on dumb bikes ready to put down the smart bike revolution for them to become too mainstream. Also the added expense of smart bikes over dumb bikes narrows the market. Things are just not changing fast enough to overcome these factors.at the moment.
It will be at least another 5 years to see the tables start to turn and another 10 before mainstream can be established.

 

[Slowroller]

Aren't "analog" bikes, just bikes and ebikes, just ebikes? I don't understand why bikes need to be renamed, last time I looked, they haven't changed.....

 

[Eckythump]

Aren't "analog" bikes, just bikes and ebikes, just ebikes? I don't understand why bikes need to be renamed, last time I looked, they haven't changed.....

I think it is used to help differentiate when people have both, like if you say 'my bike' which one are you talking about as they are both bikes.....

 

[Slowroller]

I have 3 bikes and 1 ebike, I guess I don't get confused as easily as some people

 

[Eckythump]

But we might get confused if you said you had been out on your bike today. Which one of 4???

 

[outerlimits]

I got 3 dumb bikes and one smart bike. I will now be riding the smart bike and selling the dumb bikes.

You can call them what you wish.

 

[JonasH]

I just watched that episode. That sales percentage is really interesting. Not sure if it’s true as he’s obviously touting the new Canyon EMTB, but if it is 80% on ‘all of the shops in this area’ like he mentions, then that’s pretty impressive.

Hi,
I think it's not far from the truth. In November I was in Costa Blanca area and had guided tour with Costa Blanca Enduroland, they also ran a store and if I’m not mistaken they also said that 4 out of 5 bikes sold in 2017 were e-mtb's. They told us the reasons was divided into two:
​

1. The terrain (always start with steep climbs of 500-1000 meter) Ideal for e-mtb’s
   
   
2. The new generation of e-mtb bikes were so good at descending in that kind of terrain, and did not in any way stand back from normal bikes.

Anyway, this is the impression I got from them.
​

 

[Rob Rides EMTB]

Hi,
I think it's not far from the truth. In November I was in Costa Blanca area and had guided tour with Costa Blanca Enduroland, they also ran a store and if I’m not mistaken they also said that 4 out of 5 bikes sold in 2017 were e-mtb's. They told us the reasons was divided into two:

1. The terrain (always start with steep climbs of 500-1000 meter) Ideal for e-mtb’s
   
   
2. The new generation of e-mtb bikes were so good at descending in that kind of terrain, and did not in any way stand back from normal bikes.

Anyway, this is the impression I got from them.

Excellent news ?